P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Alaves — Rayo Vallecano

Match Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano May 23, 2026

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
1:2
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Estadio Mendizorrotza · Vitoria-Gasteiz Referee J. Manzano
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 46% · book 2.50
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.91
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.10
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
1.73 – 1.39
Δ +0.34
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +7.7% better than the market.

Alaves carry a slight edge at home with a compact defensive block that has limited Rayo Vallecano's attacking threat in recent encounters. Their recent form shows stronger momentum, and a modest home advantage suggests a controlled pace.

  • Alaves' defensive solidity contrasts with Rayo's less effective defense.
  • Home form favors Alaves' confidence and pressing intensity.
  • Historical results hint at a tight, low-scoring affair.

Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, favoring a match under 2.5 goals as both sides prioritize structure over risk.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost
AI 56% Implied 52% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALA 4-4-2 · RAY 4-3-3
Subs used · ALA
33' Protesoni ↑ · Parada
74' Suarez ↑ · Ibanez
84' Diabate ↑ · Boye
84' Guevara ↑ · Guridi
Subs used · RAY
38' Camello ↑ · Martin
46' de Frutos ↑ · Garcia
61' Ciss ↑ · Mumin
61' Alemao ↑ · Valentin
88' Ratiu ↑ · Balliu

📊 Statistics

ALA 12 RAY
49%
Possession (%)
51%
1.73
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.39
19
Total Shots
15
11
Shots on Target
7
0
Shots off Target
6
11
Shots Inside Box
8
10
Corner Kicks
5
3
Offsides
3
13
Fouls
14
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
3
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
10

Match events

18 · 1 – 2
T. Martinez
1–0
13'
C. Protesoni ↓ · V. Parada ↑
Substitution 1
33'
38'
S. Camello ↓ · C. Martin ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
J. de Frutos ↓ · A. Garcia ↑
Substitution 2
54'
S. Camello
Yellow Card
61'
P. Ciss ↓ · A. Mumin ↑
Substitution 3
61'
Alemao ↓ · O. Valentin ↑
Substitution 4
64'
P. Ciss
Yellow Card
A. Perez
Yellow Card
69'
73'
S. Camello
Assist · P. Ciss · 1–1
D. Suarez ↓ · P. Ibanez ↑
Substitution 2
74'
A. Rebbach
Yellow Card
79'
I. Diabate ↓ · L. Boye ↑
Substitution 3
84'
A. Guevara ↓ · J. Guridi ↑
Substitution 4
84'
N. Tenaglia
Yellow Card
88'
88'
A. Ratiu ↓ · I. Balliu ↑
Substitution 5
90'
R. Nteka
Assist · S. Camello · 1–2
90+4'
Pacha
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.50 2.30 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.91 1.80 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.10 2.00 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.03 2.00 44% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.61 1.61 54% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.75 49% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.80 1.69 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.20 2.25 28% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.42 1.36 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.50 3.40 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.11 3.10 28% Cashed +2.11 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 9.01 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 1.29 77% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 1.05 90% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.33 1.30 69% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Draw 3.44 3.34 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.50 3.40 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −2.61u −15% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
ALA – RAY @ 1.91
+7.7%
Edge
Forecast →