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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Alaves

Match Real Madrid vs Alaves April 21, 2026

Spain   /   La Liga
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Tue 21 Apr · 19:30
2:1
Full-time
Alaves
Alaves
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 53% · book 1.91
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 43% · book 2.28
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 57% · book 1.73
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.63 – 2.11
Δ −0.48
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Real Madrid hosts Alaves with a clear quality edge and home momentum despite some recent mixed results. Their potent attack faces a vulnerable Alaves defense, suggesting Real Madrid can control the game tempo and create multiple chances. Alaves’ recent form shows resilience but their defensive frailties and away struggles may limit their threat.

  • Home side’s pressing and set-piece threat stand out.
  • Alaves’ compact block may slow pace but likely won’t contain Madrid’s firepower.
  • Expect a controlled, attacking game favoring the hosts.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

REA 4-4-2 · ALA 5-3-2
Subs used · REA
45+2' Rudiger ↑ · Militao
58' Mastantuono ↑ · Guler
58' Diaz ↑ · Bellingham
63' Carvajal ↑ · Alexander-Arnold
63' Camavinga ↑ · Tchouameni
Subs used · ALA
58' Alena ↑ · Guridi
58' Ibanez ↑ · Suarez
66' Diabate ↑ · Boye
66' Calebe ↑ · Yusi
75' Guevara ↑ · Blanco

📊 Statistics

REA 21 ALA
62%
Possession (%)
38%
1.63
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.11
24
Total Shots
19
8
Shots on Target
5
9
Shots off Target
7
12
Shots Inside Box
13
9
Corner Kicks
6
4
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
12
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

15 · 2 – 1
K. Mbappe
Assist · A. Guler · 1–0
30'
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Yellow Card
35'
A. Rudiger ↓ · Eder Militao ↑
Substitution 1
45+2'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Vinicius Junior
Assist · F. Valverde · 2–0
50'
F. Mastantuono ↓ · A. Guler ↑
Substitution 2
58'
B. Diaz ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑
Substitution 3
58'
58'
C. Alena ↓ · J. Guridi ↑
Substitution 1
58'
P. Ibanez ↓ · D. Suarez ↑
Substitution 2
D. Carvajal ↓ · T. Alexander-Arnold ↑
Substitution 4
63'
E. Camavinga ↓ · A. Tchouameni ↑
Substitution 5
63'
66'
I. Diabate ↓ · L. Boye ↑
Substitution 3
66'
Calebe ↓ · Yusi ↑
Substitution 4
75'
A. Guevara ↓ · A. Blanco ↑
Substitution 5
90'
Ángel Pérez
Yellow Card
90'
T. Martinez
Assist · A. Guevara · 2–1
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.91 53% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.28 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.73 57% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.67 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.95 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.40 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.31 78% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.07 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.50 65% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.06 78% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 96% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.16 84% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Under 1.5 6.00 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 4.00 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 21.00 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 13.00 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.60 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −6.23u −37% ROI