Value bet: how to spot positive EV

What is a value bet — in plain words

Value bet = a price better than it should be. Think shopping: the “true” average price is 50, but you find 40. Over many buys, paying 40 is profitable. In betting, when a price (odds) is higher than it should be for the real chance, you’ve found value.

How to sense if a price “should” be different

Bookmakers turn chances into odds and add a commission (margin). Your job:

1. Estimate real chances a bit better than the market (at least sometimes). Lineups, injuries, styles, tempo, xG, motivation, schedule, weather, etc. You don’t need a huge model — just consistent edges.

2. Compare your view with what the odds imply.

Quick cheat sheet (very rough for intuition):

• 2.00 ≈ 50%, 1.67 ≈ 60%, 1.50 ≈ 66%
• 3.00 ≈ 33%, 4.00 ≈ 25%, 1.25 ≈ 80%, 1.33 ≈ 75%

If you believe the true chance is higher than the odds suggest — that’s value.

Example you can feel

Home win priced at 2.30 (~43–44%). You checked lineups, styles, recent xG and think it’s ~47%.

• Market “says”: ~44%
• You believe: ~47%

They’re paying as if it were 44%, while you think it’s more likely. Over many similar bets this pays off — even though any single bet can lose.

Practical checklist before you bet

1. Collect info the market underweights (lineups, tempo, injuries, weather, schedule congestion, motivation, referee, pitch).
2. Write down your chance — being explicit beats “gut feel”.
3. Compare to the odds (use the cheat sheet).
4. Check equivalents (e.g., 1X vs AH +0.5; DNB vs AH 0) — pick the better price.
5. Stake small and consistent (e.g., 0.5–2% of bankroll; or fractional Kelly).
6. Log every bet: price taken, your chance, result — for honest review.

Where value tends to hide

• Public bias (favorites and overs are popular).
• News/lineups before the market fully adjusts.
• Styles & matchups (pressing vs slow build-up).
• Weather (rain/wind affects tempo/shot quality).
• In-play (reds, injuries, extreme game states).

Common mistakes

• Forcing action. Sometimes the best bet is no bet.
• Chasing big odds just because they look attractive.
• Emotional staking. Discipline > precision.
• Judging by short streaks. Track hundreds, not tens.
• Ignoring equivalents. DNB ≡ AH 0; 1X ≈ +0.5 — pick the best price.

How to verify you truly find value

• CLV (Closing Line Value): if you often beat the closing price, you likely have an edge and good timing.
• Bet journal: review monthly ROI and % of bets with better-than-closing prices.

Takeaway: value is not “this one will win”, it’s “this price is good long-term”.