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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Aston Villa — Burnley

Match Aston Villa vs Burnley October 5, 2025

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Andrew Kitchen, England
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.92
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 63% · book 1.61
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 16% · book 6.41
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.37 – 0.42
Δ +0.95
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
3 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Aston Villa vs Burnley — betting preview

Villa bring the stronger home platform and steadier defensive shape, while Burnley’s away phase relies more on moments and restarts. Expect the hosts to control territory and shot volume with a measured tempo; Burnley’s best route comes via transitions and set pieces. If Villa score first, the game can open into a two-to-three goal script. Our numbers lean Villa-sided outcomes, a modest preference for overs in the main band, and a cautious stance against both teams scoring.

Main risks: an early Burnley goal flipping the state; finishing variance on limited chances; late chase scenarios altering totals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · BUR 5-4-1
Subs used · AST
67' Buendia ↑ · Watkins
67' Guessand ↑ · McGinn
84' Lindelof ↑ · Cash
84' Barkley ↑ · Malen
90+10' Maatsen
90' Onana ↑ · Bogarde
Subs used · BUR
59' Bruun Larsen ↑ · Tchaouna
59' Broja ↑ · Anthony
69' Ugochukwu ↑ · Foster
82' Flemming ↑ · Laurent
90+10' Worrall ↑ · Esteve

📊 Statistics

AST 21 BUR
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.37
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.42
15
Total Shots
5
7
Shots on Target
2
5
Shots off Target
1
12
Shots Inside Box
3
6
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
5
9
Fouls
15
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
3
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

18 · 2 – 1
17'
Lyle Foster
Yellow Card
D. Malen
Assist · B. Kamara · 1–0
25'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Lucas Digne
Yellow Card
53'
59'
J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑
Substitution 1
59'
A. Broja ↓ · J. Anthony ↑
Substitution 2
D. Malen
Assist · M. Rogers · 2–0
63'
E. Buendia ↓ · O. Watkins ↑
Substitution 1
67'
E. Guessand ↓ · J. McGinn ↑
Substitution 2
67'
69'
L. Ugochukwu ↓ · L. Foster ↑
Substitution 3
78'
L. Ugochukwu
Assist · Q. Hartman · 2–1
82'
Z. Flemming ↓ · J. Laurent ↑
Substitution 4
V. Lindelof ↓ · M. Cash ↑
Substitution 3
84'
R. Barkley ↓ · D. Malen ↑
Substitution 4
84'
A. Onana ↓ · L. Bogarde ↑
Substitution 6
90'
Emiliano Buendía
Yellow Card
90+1'
Emiliano Martínez
Yellow Card
90+3'
I. Maatsen ↓ ·
Substitution 5
90+10'
90+10'
J. Worrall ↓ · M. Esteve ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.92 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.61 63% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Away Win 6.41 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.20 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Team Total Over 0.5 1.70 58% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.92 52% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Draw 4.30 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 3 W · 4 L −1.77u −25% ROI