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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga FC St. Pauli — FSV Mainz 05

Match FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 May 3, 2026

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
Home · last 5 D L L L L
Kick-off
Sun 03 May · 13:30
1:2
Full-time
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
D L W L W Away · last 5
Millerntor-Stadion · Hamburg Referee Timo Gerach, Germany
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 46% · book 2.65
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.95
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.78
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.86 – 2.35
Δ −1.49
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

FC St. Pauli hosts FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga clash where Mainz holds a clear quality edge and a stronger recent form. St. Pauli’s home momentum is limited by a leaky defense, while Mainz’s sharper attack and better away resilience suggest they can control the game. The match may lean towards a cautious tempo given the odds favoring under 2.5 goals, hinting at a compact defensive battle.

  • Mainz’s offensive edge against St. Pauli’s defense
  • Home side’s struggle to convert chances recently
  • Likely tactical focus on minimizing risks and set-piece threats

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

PAU 3-4-2-1 · MAI 3-5-2
Subs used · PAU
46' Metcalfe ↑ · Sinani
46' Dźwigała ↑ · Ritzka
65' Kaars ↑ · Hountondji
65' Ceesay ↑ · Smith
84' Rasmussen ↑ · Irvine
Subs used · MAI
72' Sieb ↑ · Becker
76' Kohr ↑ · Potulski
77' Caci ↑ · Widmer
84' Maloney ↑ · Amiri
84' Weiper ↑ · Tietz

📊 Statistics

PAU 12 MAI
52%
Possession (%)
48%
0.86
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.35
10
Total Shots
17
3
Shots on Target
6
5
Shots off Target
4
7
Shots Inside Box
15
7
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
4
10
Fouls
8
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
3
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

17 · 1 – 2
6'
Phillip Tietz
Assist · Sheraldo Becker · 0–1
40'
Phillipp Mwene
Assist · Silvan Widmer · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
Connor Metcalfe ↓ · Danel Sinani ↑
Substitution 1
46'
Adam Dźwigała ↓ · Lars Ritzka ↑
Substitution 2
46'
Martijn Kaars ↓ · Andreas Hountondji ↑
Substitution 3
65'
Abdoulie Ceesay ↓ · Eric Smith ↑
Substitution 4
65'
68'
Daniel Batz
Yellow Card
72'
Armindo Sieb ↓ · Sheraldo Becker ↑
Substitution 1
76'
Dominik Kohr ↓ · Kacper Potulski ↑
Substitution 2
77'
Anthony Caci ↓ · Silvan Widmer ↑
Substitution 3
Mathias Rasmussen ↓ · Jackson Irvine ↑
Substitution 5
84'
84'
Lennard Maloney ↓ · Nadiem Amiri ↑
Substitution 4
84'
Nelson Weiper ↓ · Phillip Tietz ↑
Substitution 5
Abdoulie Ceesay
Assist · Martijn Kaars · 1–2
87'
Karol Mets
Yellow Card
88'
Connor Metcalfe
Yellow Card
90+1'
Abdoulie Ceesay
Yellow Card
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.65 46% Cashed +1.65 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.78 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.20 41% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.89 46% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.87 46% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.06 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.47 73% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.20 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.54 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.91 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.25 79% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 89% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 3.40 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.36 67% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.00 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.24u −19% ROI