Match SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen March 7, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.95 — +8.1% better than the market.

Bayer Leverkusen holds a clear quality edge over SC Freiburg, with stronger offensive and defensive metrics suggesting they can control the game. Despite Freiburg's home momentum, their defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited by Leverkusen's sharper attack. The recent form slightly favors Freiburg, but Leverkusen's pressing and tactical discipline could tip the balance.

Leverkusen's attacking threat vs Freiburg's defense
Home side's patchy recent form
Moderate pace expected with balanced goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.95 ✓ Cashed

AI 55% Implied 51% +0.95u

+95%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · BAY 3-4-2-1

FRE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · BAY

31 Matanović

Subs used · FRE

62'

Makengo ↑ ·

Gunter ↓

62'

Scherhant ↑ ·

Grifo ↓

75'

Holer ↑ ·

Manzambi ↓

75'

Irie ↑ ·

Beste ↓

Subs used · BAY

66'

Tillman ↑ ·

Maza ↓

75'

Culbreath ↑ ·

Terrier ↓

82'

Palacios ↑ ·

Fernandez ↓

82'

Oermann ↑ ·

Poku ↓

📊 Statistics

FRE 3 – 3 BAY

47%

Possession (%)

53%

2.50

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 3 – 3

Christian Günter

Yellow Card

▮

-5'

V. Grifo

Assist · C. Gunter · 1–0

⚽

34'

37'

⚽

C. Kofane

Assist · M. Terrier · 1–1

Y. Suzuki

Assist · P. Treu · 2–1

⚽

43'

45'

⚽

A. Grimaldo

2–2

Half-time · 2 – 2

51'

▮

Alejandro Grimaldo

Yellow Card

52'

⚽

M. Terrier

Assist · C. Kofane · 2–3

J. Makengo ↓ · C. Gunter ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

D. Scherhant ↓ · V. Grifo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

66'

⇄

M. Tillman ↓ · I. Maza ↑

Substitution 1

Derry Scherhant

Yellow Card

▮

70'

L. Holer ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

C. Irie ↓ · J. Beste ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

⇄

M. Culbreath ↓ · M. Terrier ↑

Substitution 2

Cyriaque Irié

Yellow Card

▮

78'

82'

▮

Jarell Quansah

Yellow Card

82'

⇄

E. Palacios ↓ · E. Fernandez ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

T. Oermann ↓ · E. Poku ↑

Substitution 4

M. Ginter

Assist · D. Scherhant · 3–3

⚽

86'

90+2'

▮

Robert Andrich

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 3

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.95	—	55%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Away Win	2.47	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	58%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS No	2.26	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.02	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.82	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.61	—	51%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.20	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.42	—	75%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	—	34%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Home Win	3.08	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	78%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	26%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.38	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.11u	−7% ROI