Match RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

RB Leipzig enter this clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, having shown resilience in recent matches. Their attacking prowess is likely to challenge Mainz's defense, which has struggled against high-intensity offenses. Leipzig’s compact block and pressing edge could exploit Mainz’s less effective offense, while the home side’s form suggests a slight upper hand in controlling the game's tempo.

Leipzig’s home advantage and stronger attack
Mainz’s defensive vulnerabilities against pressing teams
Recent form favors Leipzig’s consistency

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

LEI 4-4-1-1 · MAI 3-5-2

LEI · 4-4-1-1 3-5-2 · MAI

11 Harder ⚽

Subs used · LEI

59'

Banzuzi ↑ ·

Bitshiabu ↓

59'

Henrichs ↑ ·

Baku ↓

72'

Gomis ↑ ·

Cardoso ↓

86'

Bakayoko ↑ ·

Seiwald ↓

Subs used · MAI

14'

Silas ↑ ·

Hollerbach ↓

72'

Maloney ↑ ·

Amiri ↓

82'

Mwene ↑ ·

Widmer ↓

82'

Nebel ↑

82'

Weiper ↑ ·

Tietz ↓

📊 Statistics

LEI 1 – 2 MAI

70%

Possession (%)

30%

1.39

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

69%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 2

14'

⇄

Silas ↓ · B. Hollerbach ↑

Substitution 1

38'

▮

Stefan Bell

Yellow Card

C. Harder

Assist · A. Nusa · 1–0

⚽

40'

45'

⚽

N. Amiri (P)

Penalty · 1–1

45+3'

▮

Stefan Posch

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

49'

⚽

Silas

Assist · P. Tietz · 1–2

E. Banzuzi ↓ · E. Bitshiabu ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

B. Henrichs ↓ · R. Baku ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

T. Gomis ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

⇄

L. Maloney ↓ · N. Amiri ↑

Substitution 2

82'

⇄

P. Mwene ↓ · S. Widmer ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

P. Nebel ↓ ·

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

N. Weiper ↓ · P. Tietz ↑

Substitution 5

J. Bakayoko ↓ · N. Seiwald ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

90+3'

▮

Kacper Potulski

Yellow Card

90+6'

▮

Nelson Weiper

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 2

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.60	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.38	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.70	—	58%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS No	2.36	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.64	—	59%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.62	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.55	—	33%	Cashed	+1.55	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.53	—	64%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.24	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.80	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.17	—	83%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.75	—	13%	Cashed	+4.75	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.38	—	13%	Cashed	+3.38	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.75u	+16% ROI