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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga 1. FC Köln — FSV Mainz 05

Match 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 January 17, 2026

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
Home · last 5 D L D L L
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 14:30
2:1
Full-time
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
D L W L W Away · last 5
Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 52% · book 2.33
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.34
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.18
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.52 – 1.22
Δ +1.30
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

1.FC Köln holds a clear quality edge over Mainz, supported by a stronger overall squad and home advantage that slightly favors their defensive solidity. Despite recent mixed form, Köln's attacking potential against Mainz's less robust defense could unlock scoring chances. Mainz's recent resilience and slightly better recent points per game suggest a competitive clash, but Köln's home momentum and tactical discipline may tip the balance.

  • Köln's defensive compactness vs Mainz's moderate attack
  • Home edge in tactical organization and set-piece threat
  • Both sides showing cautious form, hinting at a measured pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

KOL 3-4-3 · MAI 3-1-4-2
Subs used · KOL
46' Lund ↑ · Ozkacar
46' Krauss ↑ · Martel
46' Ache ↑ · Johannesson
73' Waldschmidt ↑ · Maina
83' Thielmann ↑ · Castro-Montes
Subs used · MAI
61' Sieb ↑ · Silas
74' Maloney ↑ · Bell
74' Boving ↑ · Jae-Sung
90' Nordin ↑ · Sano
90' Moreno Fell ↑ · Nebel

📊 Statistics

KOL 21 MAI
62%
Possession (%)
38%
2.52
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.22
20
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
7
8
Shots off Target
2
15
Shots Inside Box
5
9
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
4
6
Fouls
10
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
67%
4
Yellow Cards
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

21 · 2 – 1
Eric Martel
Yellow Card
18'
29'
S. Bell
Assist · D. da Costa · 0–1
43'
Jae-sung Lee
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
K. Lund ↓ · C. Ozkacar ↑
Substitution 1
46'
T. Krauss ↓ · E. Martel ↑
Substitution 2
46'
R. Ache ↓ · I. Johannesson ↑
Substitution 3
46'
R. Ache
Assist · A. Castro-Montes · 1–1
57'
61'
Silvan Widmer
Yellow Card
61'
A. Sieb ↓ · Silas ↑
Substitution 1
Marius Bülter
Yellow Card
72'
Said El Mala
Yellow Card
72'
72'
Phillip Tietz
Yellow Card
72'
Daniel Batz
Yellow Card
L. Waldschmidt ↓ · L. Maina ↑
Substitution 4
73'
74'
L. Maloney ↓ · S. Bell ↑
Substitution 2
74'
W. Boving ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑
Substitution 3
J. Thielmann ↓ · A. Castro-Montes ↑
Substitution 5
83'
R. Ache
2–1
85'
Tom Krauß
Yellow Card
87'
90'
A. Nordin ↓ · K. Sano ↑
Substitution 4
90'
F. Moreno Fell ↓ · P. Nebel ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.33 52% Cashed +1.33 Cashed
BTTS No 2.34 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.18 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.79 52% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.63 55% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.67 52% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.69 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.25 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.42 77% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.47 70% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.05 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.20 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 14.90 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.25 76% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Draw 3.75 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −4.39u −26% ROI