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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Chelsea — Brighton

Match Chelsea vs Brighton September 27, 2025

Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sat 27 Sep · 14:00
1:3
Full-time
Brighton
Brighton
W L W L L Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Simon Hooper, England
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.67
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.62
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 70% · book 1.36
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
1.34 – 2.01
Δ −0.67
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
4 / 8
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Chelsea enter this match with a clear home advantage and stronger recent form compared to Brighton, who have struggled to maintain consistency on the road. Chelsea’s attacking potential and defensive solidity at Stamford Bridge suggest they are the favorites to secure the win. Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring output away from home increase the likelihood of Chelsea controlling the game. The model favors a moderately open contest with goals from both sides, but Chelsea’s edge should be decisive. Key angles include backing Chelsea to win and the match to feature over 2.5 goals, with additional value in Chelsea’s Asian Handicap options and double chance on Chelsea or draw for a safer approach.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

CHE 4-3-3 · BRI 4-2-3-1
Subs used · CHE
54' Acheampong ↑ · Santos
63' Gusto ↑ · Willian
79' Lavia ↑ · Neto
79' Badiashile ↑ · Hato
Subs used · BRI
55' Wieffer ↑ · Veltman
67' Gruda ↑ · Baleba
67' Welbeck ↑ · Mitoma
85' Tzimas ↑ · Rutter
85' Cuyper ↑ · Gómez

📊 Statistics

CHE 13 BRI
60%
Possession (%)
40%
1.34
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.01
13
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
7
7
Shots Inside Box
8
5
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
16
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
4
Yellow Cards
5
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

22 · 1 – 3
9'
Joël Veltman
Yellow Card
Enzo Fernández
1–0
24'
Marc Cucurella
Yellow Card
42'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Trevoh Chalobah
Red Card
53'
Josh Acheampong ↓ · Andrey Santos ↑
Substitution 1
54'
55'
Mats Wieffer ↓ · Joël Veltman ↑
Substitution 1
Malo Gusto ↓ · Estêvão Willian ↑
Substitution 2
63'
64'
Mats Wieffer
Yellow Card
Reece James
Yellow Card
66'
67'
Brajan Gruda ↓ · Carlos Baleba ↑
Substitution 2
67'
Danny Welbeck ↓ · Kaoru Mitoma ↑
Substitution 3
77'
Danny Welbeck
Assist · Yankuba Minteh · 1–1
Roméo Lavia ↓ · Pedro Neto ↑
Substitution 3
79'
Benoît Badiashile ↓ · Jorrel Hato ↑
Substitution 4
79'
85'
Stefanos Tzimas ↓ · Georginio Rutter ↑
Substitution 4
85'
Maxim De Cuyper ↓ · Diego Gómez ↑
Substitution 5
Benoît Badiashile
Yellow Card
89'
89'
Jan Paul van Hecke
Yellow Card
90'
Lewis Dunk
Yellow Card
90+2'
Maxim De Cuyper
Assist · Mats Wieffer · 1–2
90+10'
Danny Welbeck
Assist · Brajan Gruda · 1–3
90+11'
Danny Welbeck
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 3

Bet recap · markets settled

8 · 4 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.67 55% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.62 60% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.36 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.25 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.13 85% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Home Win 1.82 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.10 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.50 20% Cashed +3.50 Cashed
Total · 8 markets @ 1u each 4 W · 4 L +0.92u +12% ROI