Match 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV December 13, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.69 — +10.7% better than the market.

1899 Hoffenheim enter this clash with a clear quality edge, bolstered by a strong home momentum and a more potent attack compared to Hamburger SV's sturdy but less threatening defense. Hoffenheim's pressing and set-piece threat could exploit HSV's vulnerabilities, especially given their slightly less consistent away form. The match hints at a moderate pace with a balanced goal environment, favoring Hoffenheim to control proceedings and edge a win.

Home attacking edge against away defense
Better recent form and home momentum
Moderate tempo suggests tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.69 ✗ Lost

AI 66% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HOF 4-4-2 · HAM 3-4-3

HOF · 4-4-2 3-4-3 · HAM

27 Kramarić

11 Königsdörffer 45 Baldé

Subs used · HOF

67'

Asllani ↑ ·

Kramaric ↓

67'

Prass ↑ ·

Toure ↓

80'

Bebou ↑ ·

Lemperle ↓

80'

Hlozek ↑ ·

Promel ↓

88'

Gendrey ↑ ·

Coufal ↓

Subs used · HAM

46'

Philippe ↑ ·

Gocholeishvili ↓

67'

Elfadli ↑ ·

Meffert ↓

78'

Poulsen ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

78'

Jatta ↑ ·

Balde ↓

88'

Soumahoro ↑ ·

Capaldo ↓

📊 Statistics

HOF 4 – 1 HAM

59%

Possession (%)

41%

1.31

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.31

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 4 – 1

G. Promel

Assist · W. Burger · 1–0

⚽

29'

▮

Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer

Yellow Card

O. Kabak

Assist · G. Promel · 2–0

⚽

31'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

R. Philippe ↓ · G. Gocholeishvili ↑

Substitution 1

65'

▮

Nicolás Capaldo

Yellow Card

T. Lemperle

Assist · B. Toure · 3–0

⚽

65'

F. Asllani ↓ · A. Kramaric ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

A. Prass ↓ · B. Toure ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

⇄

D. Elfadli ↓ · J. Meffert ↑

Substitution 2

F. Asllani

Assist · A. Prass · 4–0

⚽

72'

Grischa Prömel

Yellow Card

▮

74'

77'

▮

Albert Sambi Lokonga

Yellow Card

78'

⇄

Y. Poulsen ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⇄

B. Jatta ↓ · F. Balde ↑

Substitution 4

I. Bebou ↓ · T. Lemperle ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

A. Hlozek ↓ · G. Promel ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

82'

⚽

R. Philippe

Assist · F. Vieira · 4–1

V. Gendrey ↓ · V. Coufal ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

⇄

A. Soumahoro ↓ · N. Capaldo ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 4 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.69	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.77	—	62%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.62	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.53	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.21	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.38	—	34%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.24	—	84%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.54	—	56%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.56	—	55%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.34	—	62%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Under 0.5	19.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.37	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.17	—	78%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Away Win	4.52	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.48	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.97u	−29% ROI