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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga SC Freiburg — FSV Mainz 05

Match SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 November 30, 2025

SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Home · last 5 W L D L W
Kick-off
Sun 30 Nov · 18:30
4:0
Full-time
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
D L W L W Away · last 5
Europa-Park Stadion · Freiburg im Breisgau Referee Daniel Schlager, Germany
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 57% · book 2.02
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 49% · book 2.05
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 53% · book 1.83
Total goals
4
4 · 0
xG (open play)
3.33 – 0.11
Δ +3.22
Possession
75% – 25%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

SC Freiburg arrives with clear home momentum, showing stronger recent form and a notable quality edge over FSV Mainz 05. Their defensive solidity combined with a pressing edge could stifle Mainz’s attack, which has struggled on the road. Expect a controlled pace with Freiburg leveraging set-piece threats and compact block tactics to maintain dominance.

  • Home side’s defensive discipline vs Mainz’s modest offensive output
  • Freiburg’s recent unbeaten streak fueling confidence
  • Moderate tempo likely, favoring structured play over open exchanges

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

FRE 4-4-1-1 · MAI 3-4-2-1
Subs used · FRE
69' Gunter ↑ · Kubler
69' Matanovic ↑ · Suzuki
80' Osterhage ↑ · Manzambi
80' Scherhant ↑ · Beste
87' Rosenfelder ↑ · Treu
Subs used · MAI
54' Maloney ↑ · Nordin
72' Boving ↑ · Jae-Sung
73' Hanche-Olsen ↑ · Bell
73' Sieb ↑ · Hollerbach

📊 Statistics

FRE 40 MAI
75%
Possession (%)
25%
3.33
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.11
23
Total Shots
1
10
Shots on Target
1
7
Shots off Target
0
16
Shots Inside Box
0
6
Corner Kicks
2
4
Offsides
0
9
Fouls
12
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
70%
0
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

16 · 4 – 0
L. Kubler
Assist · P. Lienhart · 1–0
12'
V. Grifo
Assist · L. Holer · 2–0
26'
28'
Paul Nebel
Red Card
Half-time · 2 – 0
J. Manzambi
Assist · Y. Suzuki · 3–0
50'
52'
Sota Kawasaki
Yellow Card
54'
L. Maloney ↓ · A. Nordin ↑
Substitution 1
65'
Stefan Bell
Yellow Card
C. Gunter ↓ · L. Kubler ↑
Substitution 1
69'
I. Matanovic ↓ · Y. Suzuki ↑
Substitution 2
69'
72'
W. Boving ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑
Substitution 2
73'
A. Hanche-Olsen ↓ · S. Bell ↑
Substitution 3
73'
A. Sieb ↓ · B. Hollerbach ↑
Substitution 4
P. Osterhage ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑
Substitution 3
80'
D. Scherhant ↓ · J. Beste ↑
Substitution 4
80'
M. Rosenfelder ↓ · P. Treu ↑
Substitution 5
87'
P. Osterhage
Assist · M. Ginter · 4–0
90'
Full-time · 4 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.02 57% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.05 49% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.83 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.04 47% Cashed +1.04 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.90 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.92 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.28 83% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.43 57% Cashed +0.43 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 92% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.33 74% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.50 28% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.33 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.60 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.60 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.08 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.21 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −2.28u −13% ROI