Match FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen October 18, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

Preview & Verdict

Bayer Leverkusen is expected to have the upper hand against FSV Mainz 05, with an estimated 47.68% chance of winning, compared to the 39.06% implied by the odds. The odds of 2.56 for an away win present a promising opportunity. Additionally, the Double Chance X2 market offers a high-confidence bet with a 73.91% estimated probability, suggesting a strong likelihood of Leverkusen avoiding defeat. The Under 2.5 Goals market also provides value, with a slight edge in estimated probability over the odds. Overall, expect a competitive match with Leverkusen's attacking profile likely to make the difference.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MAI 3-4-2-1 · BAY 3-4-2-1

MAI · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · BAY

17 Hollerbach

Subs used · MAI

65'

Hanche-Olsen ↑ ·

Bell ↓

65'

Nordin ↑ ·

Veratschnig ↓

81'

Boving ↑ ·

Jae-Sung ↓

86'

Sieb ↑ ·

Hollerbach ↓

Subs used · BAY

66'

Maza ↑ ·

Hofmann ↓

79'

Terrier ↑ ·

M. Kofane ↓

79'

Ben Seghir ↑ ·

Poku ↓

📊 Statistics

MAI 3 – 4 BAY

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.61

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 3 – 4

11'

⚽

A. Grimaldo (P)

Penalty · 0–1

24'

⚽

C. M. Kofane

Assist · E. Poku · 0–2

Lee Jae-Sung

1–2

⚽

34'

Dominik Kohr

Yellow Card

▮

37'

45'

⚽

A. Grimaldo

Assist · J. Hofmann · 1–3

Half-time · 1 – 3

A. Hanche-Olsen ↓ · S. Bell ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

A. Nordin ↓ · N. Veratschnig ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

66'

⇄

I. Maza ↓ · J. Hofmann ↑

Substitution 1

67'

▮

Edmond Tapsoba

Yellow Card

68'

▮

Alejandro Grimaldo

Yellow Card

N. Amiri (P)

Penalty · 2–3

⚽

71'

Andreas Hanche-Olsen

Yellow Card

▮

77'

79'

⇄

M. Terrier ↓ · C. M. Kofane ↑

Substitution 2

79'

⇄

E. Ben Seghir ↓ · E. Poku ↑

Substitution 3

81'

▮

Loïc Badé

Yellow Card

W. Boving ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

83'

▮

Eliesse Ben Seghir

Yellow Card

A. Sieb ↓ · B. Hollerbach ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

87'

⚽

M. Terrier

2–4

A. Sieb

Assist · N. Amiri · 3–4

⚽

90'

Nadiem Amiri

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

William Bøving

Yellow Card

▮

90+10'

Full-time · 3 – 4

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.56	—	48%	Cashed	+1.56	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.47	—	74%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.12	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.35	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.55	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.95	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.63	—	56%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.26	—	77%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.40	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.84	—	52%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	30%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.58	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.13	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.85	—	48%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.34u	−14% ROI