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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig

Match Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig October 4, 2025

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Oct · 13:30
1:1
Full-time
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
W W L W L Away · last 5
Referee Sascha Stegemann, Germany
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.76
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 81% · book 1.26
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 36% · book 2.88
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.88 – 1.05
Δ −0.17
Possession
50% – 50%
AI accuracy
4 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig: Dortmund carry the stronger baseline at home with cleaner final-third production, while Leipzig’s transitions keep them dangerous. Expect a lively tempo and long spells of home control, with set-pieces and the first goal as key swing factors.

The model tilts toward a home result and a goals-friendly script. Core angles: Dortmund on the main result lines, cover with 1X, and a slight lean toward totals clearing standard lines if game state opens early.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · LEI 4-3-3
Subs used · DOR
60' Ryerson ↑ · Couto
70' Brandt ↑ · Adeyemi
70' Bellingham ↑ · Nmecha
81' Gross ↑ · Beier
81' Silva ↑ · Guirassy
Subs used · LEI
67' Banzuzi ↑ · Ouedraogo
67' Diomande ↑ · Nusa
89' Harder ↑ · Bakayoko
90+3' Maksimovic ↑ · Cardoso

📊 Statistics

DOR 11 LEI
50%
Possession (%)
50%
0.88
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.05
15
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Target
3
6
Shots off Target
6
7
Shots Inside Box
9
7
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
3
13
Fouls
14
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 1 – 1
Nico Schlotterbeck
Yellow Card
6'
7'
C. Baumgartner
Assist · A. Ouedraogo · 0–1
21'
Christoph Baumgartner
Yellow Card
Y. Couto
Assist · S. Guirassy · 1–1
23'
Half-time · 1 – 1
54'
Ridle Baku
Yellow Card
J. Ryerson ↓ · Y. Couto ↑
Substitution 1
60'
67'
E. Banzuzi ↓ · A. Ouedraogo ↑
Substitution 1
67'
Y. Diomande ↓ · A. Nusa ↑
Substitution 2
J. Brandt ↓ · K. Adeyemi ↑
Substitution 2
70'
J. Bellingham ↓ · F. Nmecha ↑
Substitution 3
70'
P. Gross ↓ · M. Beier ↑
Substitution 4
81'
F. Silva ↓ · S. Guirassy ↑
Substitution 5
81'
86'
Ezechiel Banzuzi
Yellow Card
89'
C. Harder ↓ · J. Bakayoko ↑
Substitution 3
90+3'
A. Maksimovic ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑
Substitution 4
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 4 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.76 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.26 81% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
BTTS No 2.88 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.00 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.20 32% Cashed +2.20 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.94 52% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Draw 4.70 21% Cashed +3.70 Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 4 W · 3 L +4.10u +59% ROI