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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga SC Freiburg — 1899 Hoffenheim

Match SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim September 28, 2025

SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Home · last 5 W L D L W
Kick-off
Sun 28 Sep · 13:30
1:1
Full-time
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
W W D W L Away · last 5
Europa-Park Stadion · Freiburg im Breisgau Referee Bastian Dankert, Germany
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.55
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 42% · book 2.41
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 71% · book 1.42
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.31 – 2.45
Δ −1.14
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
6 / 9
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This matchup features two teams with similar overall strength and recent mixed form, but Freiburg’s home advantage and slightly better defensive shape suggest a modest edge. Both sides have shown the ability to score and concede regularly, pointing to a balanced game with a good chance of goals at both ends. The market prices reflect a competitive contest, with the home win slightly favored. Our model leans towards a home victory or draw, with a moderate probability of both teams scoring. Totals around 2.5 goals appear reasonable, with some value in the under 2.5 goals market given the defensive tendencies and pace of play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · HOF 4-2-3-1
Subs used · FRE
38' Treu ↑ · Kübler
64' Scherhant ↑ · Grifo
64' Matanović ↑ · Adamu
84' Höler ↑ · Dinkçi
84' Rosenfelder ↑ · Beste
Subs used · HOF
59' Damar ↑ · Prass
73' Lemperle ↑ · Kramarić
73' Prömel ↑ · Avdullahu
85' Bebou ↑ · Asllani
85' Tohumcu ↑ · Burger

📊 Statistics

FRE 11 HOF
42%
Possession (%)
58%
1.31
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.45
6
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Target
4
3
Shots off Target
3
6
Shots Inside Box
11
6
Corner Kicks
8
1
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
15
69%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

15 · 1 – 1
Lukas Kübler
Assist · Junior Adamu · 1–0
3'
13'
Fisnik Asllani
Assist · Vladimír Coufal · 1–1
Philipp Treu ↓ · Lukas Kübler ↑
Substitution 1
38'
Half-time · 1 – 1
Jordy Makengo
Yellow Card
48'
45+6'
Arthur Chaves
Yellow Card
59'
Muhammed Damar ↓ · Alexander Prass ↑
Substitution 1
Derry Scherhant ↓ · Vincenzo Grifo ↑
Substitution 2
64'
Igor Matanović ↓ · Junior Adamu ↑
Substitution 3
64'
73'
Tim Lemperle ↓ · Andrej Kramarić ↑
Substitution 2
73'
Grischa Prömel ↓ · Leon Avdullahu ↑
Substitution 3
Patrick Osterhage
Yellow Card
80'
Lucas Höler ↓ · Eren Dinkçi ↑
Substitution 4
84'
Max Rosenfelder ↓ · Jan-Niklas Beste ↑
Substitution 5
84'
85'
Ihlas Bebou ↓ · Fisnik Asllani ↑
Substitution 4
85'
Umut Tohumcu ↓ · Wouter Burger ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 6 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.55 65% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.41 42% Cashed +1.41 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.42 71% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.72 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.19 85% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Away Team Total Over 0.5 1.26 80% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Home Win 2.33 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.80 27% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Away Win 3.20 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each 6 W · 3 L +2.63u +29% ROI