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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Leeds — Burnley

Match Leeds vs Burnley May 1, 2026

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Leeds
Leeds
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Fri 01 May · 19:00
3:1
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Elland Road · Leeds Referee T. Bramall
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.25
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.91
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 46% · book 1.95
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
1.65 – 0.53
Δ +1.12
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.25 — +13.7% better than the market.

Leeds enter this clash with clear home momentum, showing stronger recent form and a notable quality edge over Burnley. Their offensive threat is likely to test Burnley's defense, which has struggled lately. Expect a controlled tempo with Leeds leveraging their compact block and set-piece threat to press their advantage.

  • Home side's solid defensive shape limits Burnley's chances
  • Leeds' recent form suggests growing confidence
  • Burnley's offensive struggles may keep scoring low

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.25 ✗ Lost
AI 51% Implied 44% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEE 3-5-2 · BUR 5-4-1
Subs used · LEE
65' Nmecha ↑ · Okafor
72' Aaronson ↑ · Stach
72' Longstaff ↑ · Tanaka
90+4' James ↑ · Bogle
90+4' Gnonto ↑ · Calvert-Lewin
Subs used · BUR
54' Mejbri ↑ · Laurent
65' Pires ↑ · Hartman
65' Florentino ↑ · Ward-Prowse
76' Amdouni ↑ · Humphreys
76' Broja ↑ · Flemming

📊 Statistics

LEE 31 BUR
48%
Possession (%)
52%
1.65
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.53
18
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
2
11
Shots Inside Box
5
5
Corner Kicks
0
0
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
11
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
4
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

21 · 3 – 1
A. Stach
Assist · J. Bijol · 1–0
8'
P. Struijk
Yellow Card
27'
35'
B. Humphreys
Yellow Card
37'
L. Tchaouna
Yellow Card
J. Rodon
Yellow Card
40'
Half-time · 1 – 0
D. Calvert-Lewin
Yellow Card
48'
N. Okafor
Assist · J. Bogle · 2–0
52'
54'
H. Mejbri ↓ · J. Laurent ↑
Substitution 1
D. Calvert-Lewin
3–0
56'
L. Nmecha ↓ · N. Okafor ↑
Substitution 1
65'
65'
Lucas Pires ↓ · Q. Hartman ↑
Substitution 2
65'
Florentino ↓ · J. Ward-Prowse ↑
Substitution 3
71'
L. Tchaouna
Assist · J. Anthony · 3–1
B. Aaronson ↓ · A. Stach ↑
Substitution 2
72'
S. Longstaff ↓ · A. Tanaka ↑
Substitution 3
72'
E. Ampadu
Yellow Card
75'
76'
Z. Amdouni ↓ · B. Humphreys ↑
Substitution 4
76'
A. Broja ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑
Substitution 5
88'
H. Mejbri
Yellow Card
D. James ↓ · J. Bogle ↑
Substitution 4
90+4'
W. Gnonto ↓ · D. Calvert-Lewin ↑
Substitution 5
90+4'
Full-time · 3 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.25 2.30 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.91 1.87 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.95 1.88 46% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.75 1.67 49% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.80 2.60 28% Cashed +1.80 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.44 1.50 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.46 1.36 71% Cashed +0.46 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.33 4.50 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.10 1.08 91% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.93 3.05 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.12 1.10 71% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Under 0.5 14.50 14.93 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.87 5.00 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.03 92% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.22 1.20 73% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Away Win 7.90 8.77 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.00 6.49 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −4.56u −27% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
LEE – BUR @ 2.25
+13.7%
Edge
Forecast →