Match Aston Villa vs Chelsea March 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Chelsea arrive at Villa Park with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger attack against Villa's leaky defense. Despite Aston Villa's solid home momentum and recent mixed form, Chelsea's winning streak on the road suggests they can impose their pressing style effectively. The pace hints at a moderately open game, with both sides capable of creating chances.

Villa's defensive struggles may be exploited by Chelsea's potent offense.
Chelsea's recent form shows growing confidence and cohesion.
Home advantage slightly tempered by Villa's inconsistent results.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · CHE 4-3-3

AST · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · CHE

11 Watkins

Subs used · AST

46'

Bogarde ↑ ·

Cash ↓

63'

Barkley ↑ ·

Luiz ↓

63'

Sancho ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

63'

Alysson ↑ ·

Bailey ↓

72'

Abraham ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

Subs used · CHE

75'

Lavia ↑ ·

Gusto ↓

79'

Adarabioyo ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

79'

Cucurella ↑ ·

Fernandez ↓

85'

Santos ↑ ·

Palmer ↓

85'

Delap ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

📊 Statistics

AST 1 – 4 CHE

43%

Possession (%)

57%

0.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 1 – 4

Douglas Luiz

Assist · L. Bailey · 1–0

⚽

Matty Cash

Yellow Card

▮

32'

35'

⚽

Joao Pedro

Assist · M. Gusto · 1–1

45'

⚽

Joao Pedro

Assist · E. Fernandez · 1–2

Half-time · 1 – 2

L. Bogarde ↓ · M. Cash ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

54'

▮

João Pedro

Yellow Card

55'

⚽

C. Palmer

Assist · Joao Pedro · 1–3

Morgan Rogers

Yellow Card

▮

58'

▮

Enzo Fernández

Yellow Card

R. Barkley ↓ · Douglas Luiz ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

J. Sancho ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

63'

Alysson ↓ · L. Bailey ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

63'

64'

⚽

Joao Pedro

Assist · A. Garnacho · 1–4

Ollie Watkins

Yellow Card

▮

68'

T. Abraham ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

72'

75'

⇄

R. Lavia ↓ · M. Gusto ↑

Substitution 1

79'

⇄

T. Adarabioyo ↓ · W. Fofana ↑

Substitution 2

79'

⇄

M. Cucurella ↓ · E. Fernandez ↑

Substitution 3

85'

⇄

Andrey Santos ↓ · C. Palmer ↑

Substitution 4

85'

⇄

L. Delap ↓ · Joao Pedro ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 4

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.51	—	48%	Cashed	+1.51	Cashed
BTTS No	2.47	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.74	—	57%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.27	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.80	—	35%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.87	—	48%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.08	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.50	—	73%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	59%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.59	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.85	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	79%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.76	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	16.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.73u	−16% ROI