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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Casa Pia

Match Guimaraes vs Casa Pia May 11, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:15
0:1
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L L W D D Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee L. M. Branco Godinho
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.96
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 62% · book 1.75
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.00
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.94 – 0.88
Δ +0.06
Possession
71% – 29%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.96 — +11.1% better than the market.

Guimaraes hold a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid defensive setup that challenges Casa Pia's attack. The hosts' recent form shows resilience, while Casa Pia struggles for consistency, especially away. Expect a tactical battle with Guimaraes pressing higher and controlling tempo, likely limiting scoring chances.

  • Home side's defensive solidity vs away's modest offense
  • Guimaraes' better recent form and home comfort
  • Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.96 ✓ Cashed
AI 57% Implied 51% +0.96u
+96%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · CAS 3-4-3
Subs used · GUI
60' Camara ↑ · Gustavo
60' Arcanjo ↑ · Nogueira
60' Zeega ↑ · Nogueira
81' Ndoye ↑ · Samu
Subs used · CAS
46' Osundina ↑ · Ofori
69' Mendes ↑ · Livramento
74' Conte ↑ · Prieto
90+5' Dafe ↑ · Mendes
90+6' Fonte ↑ · Larrazabal

📊 Statistics

GUI 01 CAS
71%
Possession (%)
29%
0.94
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.88
15
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Target
5
8
Shots off Target
4
10
Shots Inside Box
8
6
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
16
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
61%
2
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

13 · 0 – 1
22'
P. Rosas
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
K. Osundina ↓ · L. Ofori ↑
Substitution 1
O. Camara ↓ · Gustavo ↑
Substitution 1
60'
T. Arcanjo ↓ · M. Nogueira ↑
Substitution 2
60'
Zeega ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑
Substitution 3
60'
69'
C. Mendes ↓ · D. Livramento ↑
Substitution 2
74'
A. Conte ↓ · K. Prieto ↑
Substitution 3
R. Abascal
Yellow Card
76'
Beni
Yellow Card
78'
A. Ndoye ↓ · Samu ↑
Substitution 4
81'
86'
G. Larrazabal
Assist · J. Marques · 0–1
90+5'
A. Dafe ↓ · C. Mendes ↑
Substitution 4
90+6'
J. Fonte ↓ · G. Larrazabal ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.96 1.95 57% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
Home Win 1.75 1.70 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.00 1.95 54% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.92 1.87 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.80 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.16 2.10 38% Cashed +1.16 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.80 3.75 31% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.36 1.33 77% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.22 1.19 85% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.30 1.27 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.70 10.99 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 1.04 90% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 4.09 3.91 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 1.25 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.25 3.12 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.75 4.74 15% Cashed +3.75 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.45 3.40 15% Cashed +2.45 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L +3.53u +21% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
GUI – CAS @ 1.96
+11.1%
Edge
Forecast →