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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Tondela — Moreirense

Match Tondela vs Moreirense May 11, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:15
2:0
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee R. Baixinho
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.83
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 58% · book 1.91
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.95
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.39 – 0.29
Δ +1.10
Possession
40% – 60%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.83 — +8.8% better than the market.

Moreirense enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their defensive solidity could stifle Tondela’s modest attacking threat, while the home side’s defensive struggles may be exposed by Moreirense’s sharper offense. Expect a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring chances, as reflected by the market leaning towards under 2.5 goals.

  • Moreirense’s defensive resilience vs Tondela’s attack
  • Home side’s recent inconsistent form
  • Likely controlled pace favoring fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed
AI 59% Implied 55% +0.83u
+83%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TON 4-2-3-1 · MOR 4-2-3-1
Subs used · TON
72' Hodge ↑ · Lopes
72' Tavares ↑ · Aiko
72' Kimpioka ↑ · Cicero
83' Siebatcheu ↑ · Felix
90' Afonso ↑ · Maranhao
Subs used · MOR
46' Teguia ↑ · Bondoso
46' Semedo ↑ · Stjepanovic
72' Landerson ↑ · Kiko
72' Maranhao ↑ · Alanzinho
83' Santos ↑ · Fabiano

📊 Statistics

TON 20 MOR
40%
Possession (%)
60%
1.39
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.29
14
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
4
1
Corner Kicks
8
1
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
9
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

17 · 2 – 0
M. Aiko
Assist · Pedro Maranhao · 1–0
18'
29'
Alanzinho
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
C. Teguia ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑
Substitution 1
46'
L. Semedo ↓ · M. Stjepanovic ↑
Substitution 2
Rony Lopes
Assist · T. Manso · 2–0
60'
J. Hodge ↓ · Rony Lopes ↑
Substitution 1
72'
H. Tavares ↓ · M. Aiko ↑
Substitution 2
72'
B. Kimpioka ↓ · Cicero ↑
Substitution 3
72'
72'
Landerson ↓ · Kiko ↑
Substitution 3
72'
Yan Maranhao ↓ · Alanzinho ↑
Substitution 4
77'
Fabiano
Yellow Card
83'
L. Santos ↓ · Fabiano ↑
Substitution 5
J. Siebatcheu ↓ · H. Felix ↑
Substitution 4
83'
J. Afonso ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑
Substitution 5
90'
90+3'
C. Teguia
Yellow Card
J. Siebatcheu
Yellow Card
90+4'
90+4'
Maracas
Red Card
Full-time · 2 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.83 1.80 59% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.91 1.88 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.95 1.87 54% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.87 1.86 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.06 2.00 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.95 1.90 42% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Away Win 4.10 4.00 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.40 3.30 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.00 3.18 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.26 1.22 68% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 9.09 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 1.25 79% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Draw 3.66 3.40 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 1.05 89% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.44 1.37 42% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.33 1.30 66% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.50 3.50 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −4.89u −29% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
TON – MOR @ 1.83
+8.8%
Edge
Forecast →