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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Rio Ave

Match Guimaraes vs Rio Ave April 25, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
D L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.94
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 58% · book 1.85
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.98
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.13 – 0.59
Δ +0.54
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.94 — +9.4% better than the market.

Guimaraes holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid home defensive setup, which could frustrate Rio Ave's attack. The home side's recent form shows some inconsistency, but their home momentum and pressing edge may prove decisive.

  • Guimaraes' defensive solidity contrasts with Rio Ave's moderate offensive threat.
  • Home crowd support at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques adds to Guimaraes' advantage.
  • Match likely to be moderately paced with a tactical, compact block from the hosts.

Rio Ave has shown resilience with recent wins but faces a tough away challenge. Their attack may struggle against Guimaraes' disciplined defense, suggesting a cautious game with limited goals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.94 ✓ Cashed
AI 56% Implied 52% +0.94u
+94%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · RIO 4-2-3-1
Subs used · GUI
58' Nogueira ↑ · Sousa
58' Strata ↑ · Maga
58' Nogueira ↑ · Camara
68' Arcanjo ↑ · Saviolo
81' Oliveira ↑ · Gustavo
Subs used · RIO
69' Guilherme ↑ · Pohlmann
69' Tome ↑ · Spikic
77' Richards ↑ · Abbey
77' Monteiro ↑ · Nikitscher
86' Lobato ↑ · Bezerra

📊 Statistics

GUI 20 RIO
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.13
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.59
11
Total Shots
5
3
Shots on Target
4
5
Shots off Target
0
6
Shots Inside Box
4
3
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
2
7
Fouls
13
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
4
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

20 · 2 – 0
28'
Andreas Ndoj
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Gustavo Silva
Yellow Card
57'
G. Nogueira ↓ · D. Sousa ↑
Substitution 1
58'
T. Strata ↓ · Maga ↑
Substitution 2
58'
M. Nogueira ↓ · O. Camara ↑
Substitution 3
58'
60'
Gustavo Mancha
Yellow Card
61'
Tamás Nikitscher
Yellow Card
Thiago Balieiro
Yellow Card
62'
T. Arcanjo ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑
Substitution 4
68'
69'
Ryan Guilherme ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑
Substitution 1
69'
J. Tome ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 2
Samu
Assist · Gustavo · 1–0
72'
77'
O. Richards ↓ · N. Abbey ↑
Substitution 3
77'
T. Monteiro ↓ · T. Nikitscher ↑
Substitution 4
79'
Diogo Bezerra
Yellow Card
Samu
Yellow Card
80'
N. Oliveira ↓ · Gustavo ↑
Substitution 5
81'
86'
Rafael Lobato ↓ · Diogo Bezerra ↑
Substitution 5
T. Strata
Assist · Beni · 2–0
90'
Tony Strata
Yellow Card
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.94 56% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Home Win 1.85 58% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
BTTS No 1.98 53% Cashed +0.98 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.72 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.85 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.90 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.60 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.21 84% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.33 58% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.05 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.33 76% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 89% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.35 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 69% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.02 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.30 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −5.06u −30% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
GUI – RIO @ 1.94
+9.4%
Edge
Forecast →