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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Estrela

Match Arouca vs Estrela April 19, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 19 Apr · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.94
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 55% · book 2.10
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.12
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.84 – 1.25
Δ −0.41
Possession
50% – 50%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.94 — +12.9% better than the market.

Arouca holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a mild home advantage, suggesting they can control the game tempo. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Estrela's stronger attack, setting up a tactical battle where Arouca's compact block may frustrate the visitors. Recent form is similar, but Arouca's home momentum and previous head-to-head win add confidence to their chances.

  • Home side's defensive resilience vs away attacking threat
  • Moderate home edge supports control of play
  • Balanced recent form with slight home momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.94 ✓ Cashed
AI 58% Implied 52% +0.94u
+94%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-3-3
Subs used · ARO
61' Santos ↑ · van Ee
61' Trezza ↑ · Gozalbez
69' Flores ↑ · Lee
75' Puche ↑ · Barbero
75' Rocha ↑ · Djouahra
Subs used · EST
23' Patrick ↑ · Schappo
70' Jovane ↑ · Jansson
70' Meireles ↑ · Stoica
80' Moreira ↑ · Doue
80' van Hooijdonk ↑ · Pinho

📊 Statistics

ARO 10 EST
50%
Possession (%)
50%
0.84
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.25
11
Total Shots
15
3
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
8
5
Shots Inside Box
10
4
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
2
15
Fouls
11
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
5
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

17 · 1 – 0
23'
Luan Patrick ↓ · Bernardo Schappo ↑
Substitution 1
Espen Van Ee
Yellow Card
32'
Javi Sánchez
Yellow Card
44'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Tiago Esgaio
1–0
46'
Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑
Substitution 1
61'
A. Trezza ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑
Substitution 2
61'
M. Flores ↓ · H. Lee ↑
Substitution 3
69'
70'
Jovane ↓ · K. Jansson ↑
Substitution 2
70'
J. Meireles ↓ · I. Stoica ↑
Substitution 3
Pedro Santos
Yellow Card
72'
Puche ↓ · I. Barbero ↑
Substitution 4
75'
M. Rocha ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑
Substitution 5
75'
80'
P. Moreira ↓ · G. Doue ↑
Substitution 4
80'
S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · Rodrigo Pinho ↑
Substitution 5
90'
Jorge Meireles
Yellow Card
Mateo Flores
Yellow Card
90+5'
Matías Rocha
Yellow Card
90+6'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.94 58% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Home Win 2.10 55% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
BTTS No 2.12 53% Cashed +1.12 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.83 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.98 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.80 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.30 82% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.77 32% Cashed +2.77 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.36 78% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.50 55% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 0.5 11.00 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 89% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 3.40 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.31 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.93 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.21 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.35 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.84u −11% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
ARO – EST @ 1.94
+12.9%
Edge
Forecast →