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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Nacional — Estrela

Match Nacional vs Estrela April 4, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 14:30
2:0
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.86 ✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 58% · book 1.83 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.00 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
0.99 – 0.50
Δ +0.49
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.86 — +7.6% better than the market.

Nacional hosts Estrela in a Primeira Liga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. Nacional’s defensive solidity faces a probing Estrela attack, but home momentum is lacking given their recent struggles. The match hints at a cautious tempo, with both sides showing signs of compact defensive setups.

  • Estrela’s pressing edge could exploit Nacional’s fragile form.
  • Home defensive resilience vs away offensive intent.
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over open play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.86 ✓ Cashed
AI 58% Implied 54% +0.86u
+86%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAC 4-3-3 · EST 4-3-3
NAC · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · EST 1 Kaique 16 Núñez 34 Santos 38 Vitor 5 Gomes 8 Baeza 15 Labidi 28 Liziero 27 Veron 9 Ramírez ⚽ 11 Bóia ⚽ 40 Ribeiro 21 Scholze 30 Patrick 14 Schappo 24 Langa 39 Doué 6 Jansson 63 Sola 99 Marcus 9 Pinho 10 Stoica
Subs used · NAC
49' Junior ↑ · Baeza ↓
77' Soares ↑ · Liziero ↓
77' Vallier ↑ · Gomes ↓
89' Goncalves ↑ · Veron ↓
Subs used · EST
46' Moustier ↑ · Sola ↓
46' Jovane ↑ · Stoica ↓
74' van Hooijdonk ↑ · Doue ↓
75' Encada ↑ · Langa ↓
85' Antonetti ↑ · Pinho ↓

📊 Statistics

NAC 2 – 0 EST
49%
Possession (%)
51%
0.99
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.50
16
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
2
5
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
6
5
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
5
14
Fouls
8
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
4
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 0
1'
▮
Luan Patrick
Yellow Card
J. Ramirez
1–0
⚽
2'
16'
▮
Rodrigo Pinho
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
T. Moustier ↓ · A. Sola ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
Jovane ↓ · I. Stoica ↑
Substitution 2
Léo Santos
Yellow Card
▮
45+3'
Daniel Junior ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
49'
Paulinho Boia
Assist · Leo Santos · 2–0
⚽
71'
74'
⇄
S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · G. Doue ↑
Substitution 3
75'
⇄
J. Encada ↓ · B. Langa ↑
Substitution 4
F. Soares ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
77'
L. Vallier ↓ · Jose Gomes ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
Alan Núñez
Yellow Card
▮
78'
81'
▮
Jefferson Encada
Yellow Card
85'
⇄
L. Antonetti ↓ · Rodrigo Pinho ↑
Substitution 5
Daniel Júnior
Yellow Card
▮
86'
C. Goncalves ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
89'
Paulinho Bóia
Yellow Card
▮
90+6'
Full-time · 2 – 0

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.86 — 58% Cashed +0.86 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.83 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.00 — 53% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.72 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.09 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.86 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.08 — 42% Cashed +1.08 Cashed
Away Win 3.80 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.45 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.30 — 67% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 — 78% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 89% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.47 — 42% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.34 — 68% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Draw 3.55 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.60 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.56u −27% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
NAC – EST @ 1.86
+7.6%
Edge
Forecast →