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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Moreirense — Arouca

Match Moreirense vs Arouca March 21, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Sat 21 Mar · 15:30
0:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Moreira de Conegos Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 65% · book 1.75
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 59% · book 1.91
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 45% · book 2.50
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.59 – 1.69
Δ −1.10
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.75 — +13.0% better than the market.

Moreirense holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a mild home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Arouca’s more vulnerable backline, while both sides show similar attacking potential. Recent form favors Moreirense slightly, hinting at home momentum despite mixed results.

  • Home defensive resilience vs away attacking pressure
  • Moderate home edge shaping match rhythm
  • Close quality gap with slight form advantage

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.75 ✓ Cashed
AI 65% Implied 57% +0.75u
+75%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MOR 4-3-3 · ARO 4-2-3-1
Subs used · MOR
58' Gower ↑ · Alanzinho
58' Landerson ↑ · Kiko
75' Monteiro ↑ · Santos
82' Rodri ↑ · John
Subs used · ARO
53' Puche ↑ · Nandin
73' Mansilla ↑ · Gozalbez
86' Dante ↑ · Kuipers
86' Santos ↑ · Lee
86' Santiago Perez ↑ · Fukui

📊 Statistics

MOR 01 ARO
49%
Possession (%)
51%
0.59
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.69
7
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Target
2
3
Shots off Target
8
3
Shots Inside Box
9
3
Corner Kicks
7
0
Offsides
3
9
Fouls
11
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

13 · 0 – 1
34'
Dylan Nandín
Yellow Card
Maracás
Yellow Card
39'
Half-time · 0 – 0
53'
Puche ↓ · D. Nandin ↑
Substitution 1
J. Gower ↓ · Alanzinho ↑
Substitution 1
58'
Landerson ↓ · Kiko ↑
Substitution 2
58'
67'
Puche
0–1
70'
Pablo Gozálbez
Yellow Card
73'
B. Mansilla ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑
Substitution 2
Kevyn Monteiro ↓ · L. Santos ↑
Substitution 3
75'
Rodri ↓ · N. John ↑
Substitution 4
82'
86'
A. Dante ↓ · B. Kuipers ↑
Substitution 3
86'
Pedro Santos ↓ · H. Lee ↑
Substitution 4
86'
J. Santiago Perez ↓ · T. Fukui ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.75 65% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
BTTS No 1.91 59% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Home Win 2.50 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.81 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.91 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.18 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.16 28% Cashed +1.16 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.16 39% Cashed +2.16 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.42 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.50 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.27 82% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Away Win 3.20 28% Cashed +2.20 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.57 55% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.09 86% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 3.35 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.39 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.85 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −0.89u −5% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
MOR – ARO @ 1.75
+13.0%
Edge
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