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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Alverca

Match Guimaraes vs Alverca February 28, 2026

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Sat 28 Feb · 20:30
1:1
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.84
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.82
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.87
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.30 – 1.96
Δ −0.66
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Guimaraes hold a clear quality edge and benefit from a solid home defensive setup that could frustrate Alverca. Despite Guimaraes' mixed recent form, their attacking potential against Alverca's less robust defense suggests they can control the game tempo. The match hints at a moderate pace with a leaning towards fewer goals, given both sides' recent scoring struggles.

  • Home defensive solidity versus away attack
  • Moderate home momentum despite patchy form
  • Likely compact game with limited goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · ALV 3-4-3
Subs used · GUI
56' Nogueira ↑ · Sousa
73' Arcanjo ↑ · Gustavo
85' Lebedenko ↑ · I. Mendes
85' Camara ↑ · Saviolo
Subs used · ALV
72' Lima ↑ · Marezi
85' Moreira ↑ · Lincoln
85' Garcia ↑ · Chiquinho
90' Gui ↑ · Rhaldney
90' Clairicia ↑ · Figueiredo

📊 Statistics

GUI 11 ALV
53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.30
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.96
15
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
5
6
Shots off Target
2
10
Shots Inside Box
8
0
Corner Kicks
11
4
Offsides
1
16
Fouls
5
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
1
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

14 · 1 – 1
Diogo Sousa
Yellow Card
35'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Samu
Assist · A. Ndoye · 1–0
46'
G. Nogueira ↓ · D. Sousa ↑
Substitution 1
56'
65'
Figueiredo
Assist · Chiquinho · 1–1
72'
Sandro Lima ↓ · Marezi ↑
Substitution 1
T. Arcanjo ↓ · Gustavo ↑
Substitution 2
73'
O. Lebedenko ↓ · J. I. Mendes ↑
Substitution 3
85'
O. Camara ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑
Substitution 4
85'
85'
V. Moreira ↓ · Lincoln ↑
Substitution 2
85'
F. Garcia ↓ · Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 3
86'
Rhaldney
Yellow Card
89'
Kaiky Naves
Yellow Card
90'
D. Gui ↓ · Rhaldney ↑
Substitution 4
90'
M. Clairicia ↓ · Figueiredo ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.84 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.82 58% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
BTTS No 1.87 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.98 45% Cashed +0.98 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.10 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.05 40% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.22 85% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.33 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 78% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 89% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.36 68% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Draw 3.64 25% Cashed +2.64 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.80 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.75 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.46 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −2.55u −15% ROI