P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Estrela — Tondela

Match Estrela vs Tondela February 20, 2026

Estrela
Estrela
Home · last 5 L L L D D
Kick-off
Fri 20 Feb · 20:45
0:2
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio José Gomes · Amadora Referee Gustavo Correia, Portugal
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 46% · book 2.66
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 41% · book 2.38
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.81
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
1.13 – 1.29
Δ −0.16
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Estrela holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a modest home momentum, despite mixed recent results. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Tondela's slightly weaker backline, suggesting a tactical advantage in controlling the game. Both sides have shown signs of cautious play, hinting at a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

  • Home side's defensive strength may stifle away attacks
  • Close recent form but Estrela's home edge is notable
  • Odds and form suggest a low to moderate scoring pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

EST 4-1-4-1 · TON 5-4-1
Subs used · EST
46' Scholze ↑ · Otavio
46' Brahimi ↑ · Doue
65' Stoica ↑ · Jansson
73' Pinho ↑ · Jovane
73' Moustier ↑ · Encada
Subs used · TON
18' Felix ↑ · Aiko
67' Tavares ↑ · Cicero
67' Sithole ↑ · Hodge
89' Afonso ↑ · Bebeto
89' Manso ↑ · Maranhao

📊 Statistics

EST 02 TON
67%
Possession (%)
33%
1.13
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.29
15
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Target
5
8
Shots off Target
2
5
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
17
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
2
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

19 · 0 – 2
-5'
Cicero
Yellow Card
4'
Bebeto (P)
Penalty · 0–1
18'
H. Felix ↓ · M. Aiko ↑
Substitution 1
Eddy Doué
Yellow Card
41'
Half-time · 0 – 1
M. Scholze ↓ · Otavio ↑
Substitution 1
46'
B. Brahimi ↓ · G. Doue ↑
Substitution 2
46'
Paulo Moreira
Yellow Card
61'
62'
Joe Hodge
Yellow Card
I. Stoica ↓ · K. Jansson ↑
Substitution 3
65'
67'
H. Tavares ↓ · Cicero ↑
Substitution 2
67'
S. Sithole ↓ · J. Hodge ↑
Substitution 3
69'
Siphephelo Sithole
Yellow Card
Rodrigo Pinho ↓ · Jovane ↑
Substitution 4
73'
T. Moustier ↓ · J. Encada ↑
Substitution 5
73'
75'
Pedro Maranhao
0–2
87'
Brayan Medina
Yellow Card
89'
J. Afonso ↓ · Bebeto ↑
Substitution 4
89'
T. Manso ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑
Substitution 5
Luan Patrick
Red Card
90+5'
Full-time · 0 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.66 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.38 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.81 53% Cashed +0.81 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.64 59% Cashed +0.64 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.01 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.80 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.87 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.03 26% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.45 74% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.48 67% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.52 54% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Away Win 2.95 26% Cashed +1.95 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.10 89% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.22 79% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.50 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.22 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 7.70 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.25u −19% ROI