Match Casa Pia vs Arouca February 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.91 — +14.0% better than the market.

Arouca arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Casa Pia's defensive solidity at home could keep things tight, but Arouca's slightly stronger attack may find chances against a compact block. The pace hints at a controlled tempo, favoring disciplined buildup over frantic breaks.

Home defensive resilience vs away attacking threat
Arouca's momentum and quality gap
Moderate pace likely to limit goal frenzy

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · ARO 4-2-3-1

CAS · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · ARO

13 Osundina

Subs used · CAS

53'

Marques ↑ ·

Osundina ↓

84'

Livramento ↑ ·

Cassiano ↓

84'

Mohamed ↑ ·

Brito ↓

90+3'

Mendes ↑ ·

Livolant ↓

Subs used · ARO

67'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

67'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

84'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Esgaio ↓

84'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

84'

Puche ↑ ·

Kuipers ↓

📊 Statistics

CAS 3 – 2 ARO

31%

Possession (%)

69%

2.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.23

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

68%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 3 – 2

▮

Javi Sánchez

Yellow Card

David Sousa

Yellow Card

▮

10'

11'

⚽

I. Barbero

Assist · Tiago Esgaio · 0–1

R. Brito

Assist · A. Conte · 1–1

⚽

21'

Cassiano

Assist · J. Livolant · 2–1

⚽

25'

Gaizka Larrazabal

Yellow Card

▮

37'

⚽

A. Conte

Own goal · 2–2

Cassiano (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

45'

Half-time · 3 – 2

J. Marques ↓ · K. Osundina ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

53'

Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira

Yellow Card

▮

56'

67'

⇄

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 1

67'

⇄

B. Mansilla ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 2

Cassiano

Yellow Card

▮

73'

79'

▮

Ignacio de Arruabarrena

Yellow Card

Joao Marques

Yellow Card

▮

83'

D. Livramento ↓ · Cassiano ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

84'

I. Mohamed ↓ · R. Brito ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

⇄

D. Monteiro ↓ · Tiago Esgaio ↑

Substitution 3

84'

⇄

P. Gozalbez ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

Puche ↓ · B. Kuipers ↑

Substitution 5

C. Mendes ↓ · J. Livolant ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 2

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.91	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.68	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.76	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.92	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.97	—	40%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.30	—	33%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.98	—	27%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.00	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.46	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	84%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	59%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.50	—	55%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Home Win	2.84	—	27%	Cashed	+1.84	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	86%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.25	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.20	—	16%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.31u	+2% ROI