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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga AVS — Arouca

Match AVS vs Arouca January 17, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
AVS
AVS
Home · last 5 D D W W D
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 18:00
0:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves · Vila das Aves Referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 59% · book 1.95
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 65% · book 1.76
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 47% · book 2.60
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.58 – 1.15
Δ −0.57
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.76 — +14.6% better than the market.

Arouca enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. AVS's defensive solidity might keep things tight, but their struggles in attack against a disciplined Arouca backline hint at a low-scoring affair. The home side's slight home edge is tempered by their poor momentum, while Arouca's balanced attack and defense could control the tempo.

  • Strong defensive setups on both sides
  • Arouca's recent form and quality advantage
  • Likely cautious pace with limited goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.76 ✓ Cashed
AI 65% Implied 57% +0.76u
+76%
ROI on stake

Lineups

AVS 4-3-3 · ARO 4-2-3-1
Subs used · AVS
54' Duarte ↑ · Perea
72' Nene ↑ · Tomane
72' Algobia ↑ · Roni
80' Grau ↑ · Lima
80' Neiva ↑ · Mendonca
Subs used · ARO
46' Dante ↑ · Kuipers
67' Gozalbez ↑ · Lee
72' Mansilla ↑ · Barbero
72' Flores ↑ · Fukui
84' Puche ↑ · Djouahra

📊 Statistics

AVS 01 ARO
37%
Possession (%)
63%
0.58
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.15
12
Total Shots
18
3
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
10
6
Shots Inside Box
10
2
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
4
11
Fouls
12
74%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
3
Yellow Cards
6
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

21 · 0 – 1
Cristian Castro
Red Card
5'
10'
Espen Van Ee
Yellow Card
Gustavo Mendonca
Yellow Card
11'
38'
Javi Sánchez
Yellow Card
42'
I. Barbero
Assist · T. Fukui · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
46'
A. Dante ↓ · B. Kuipers ↑
Substitution 1
D. Duarte ↓ · O. Perea ↑
Substitution 1
54'
58'
Ivan Barbero
Yellow Card
67'
P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑
Substitution 2
Nene ↓ · Tomane ↑
Substitution 2
72'
A. Algobia ↓ · Roni ↑
Substitution 3
72'
72'
B. Mansilla ↓ · I. Barbero ↑
Substitution 3
72'
M. Flores ↓ · T. Fukui ↑
Substitution 4
79'
Matías Rocha
Yellow Card
J. Grau ↓ · Pedro Lima ↑
Substitution 4
80'
G. Neiva ↓ · G. Mendonca ↑
Substitution 5
80'
Jaume Grau
Yellow Card
83'
84'
Puche ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑
Substitution 5
89'
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Yellow Card
Rúben Semedo
Yellow Card
90+3'
90+6'
Mateo Flores
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.95 59% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.76 65% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Away Win 2.60 47% Cashed +1.60 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.85 47% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.89 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.16 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.12 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.44 74% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.25 40% Cashed +2.25 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.28 83% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.57 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.95 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.36 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 85% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.38 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.80 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.79u −11% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
AVS – ARO @ 1.76
+14.6%
Edge
Forecast →