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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga GIL Vicente — Nacional

Match GIL Vicente vs Nacional January 17, 2026

GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
Home · last 5 L W D L L
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 15:30
2:1
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos · Barcelos Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 63% · book 1.71
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.82
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.85
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.43 – 1.61
Δ −0.18
Possession
54% – 46%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

GIL Vicente holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Nacional’s attack. Despite Nacional’s resilience, their away form and defensive frailties suggest a tough outing. The match hints at a controlled tempo with moderate goal expectations, favoring a disciplined home side.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away attack
  • Recent home form stability
  • Moderate pace suggested by odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

VIC 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-3-3
Subs used · VIC
71' Bamba ↑ · Carlos
72' Fernandes ↑ · Toure
76' Fernandez ↑ · Varela
85' Espigares ↑ · Esteves
Subs used · NAC
64' Baeza ↑ · Labidi
64' Veron ↑ · Boia
74' Silva ↑ · Dias
75' Nunez ↑ · Aurelio
81' Joao ↑ · Liziero

📊 Statistics

VIC 21 NAC
54%
Possession (%)
46%
1.43
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.61
16
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Target
4
7
Shots off Target
8
9
Shots Inside Box
6
7
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
2
7
Fouls
18
75%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
1
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 2 – 1
Facundo Cáseres
Yellow Card
-5'
Murilo de Souza
1–0
19'
22'
Ze Vitor
Assist · Leo Santos · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
S. Garcia
2–1
57'
62'
Paulinho Bóia
Yellow Card
64'
M. Baeza ↓ · C. Labidi ↑
Substitution 1
64'
Gabriel Veron ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑
Substitution 2
70'
Matheus Dias
Yellow Card
M. Bamba ↓ · Ze Carlos ↑
Substitution 1
71'
J. Fernandes ↓ · T. Toure ↑
Substitution 2
72'
74'
J. Silva ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 3
75'
A. Nunez ↓ · J. Aurelio ↑
Substitution 4
M. Fernandez ↓ · G. Varela ↑
Substitution 3
76'
81'
L. Joao ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 5
A. Espigares ↓ · L. Esteves ↑
Substitution 4
85'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.71 63% Cashed +0.71 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.82 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.85 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.07 47% Cashed +1.07 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.10 45% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.25 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.19 87% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.33 63% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 76% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.35 70% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.80 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.85 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.56 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.02 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −4.87u −29% ROI