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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Leeds

Match Aston Villa vs Leeds February 21, 2026

England   /   Premier League
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 15:00
1:1
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D W D W L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Michael Oliver, England
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 59% · book 1.91 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.05 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 2.12 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.39 – 1.35
Δ +0.04
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Aston Villa hold a clear quality edge and home momentum at Villa Park, backed by a solid defensive record that could stifle Leeds' attack. Leeds show signs of resilience but face a pressing challenge against Villa's compact block and efficient counterattacks. The recent form gap favors Villa, suggesting they can control the tempo and limit Leeds' chances.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive threat
  • Villa's recent winning streak and home comfort
  • Moderate pace expected with tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · LEE 5-4-1
AST · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · LEE 23 Martínez 2 Cash 4 Konsa 5 Mings 22 Maatsen 24 Onana 21 Luiz 31 Bailey 27 Rogers 10 Buendía 11 Watkins 26 Darlow 2 Bogle 24 Justin 6 Rodon 5 Struijk 3 Gudmundsson 18 Stach ⚽ 4 Ampadu 44 Gruev 11 Aaronson 9 Calvert-Lewin
Subs used · AST
61' Barkley ↑ · Onana ↓
61' Sancho ↑ · Bailey ↓
75' Abraham ↑ · Buendia ↓
87' Bogarde ↑ · Luiz ↓
87' Garcia ↑ · Cash ↓
Subs used · LEE
46' Bijol ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓
73' Nmecha ↑ · Aaronson ↓
83' Longstaff ↑ · Stach ↓

📊 Statistics

AST 1 – 1 LEE
67%
Possession (%)
33%
1.39
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.35
16
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
4
7
Shots off Target
6
6
Shots Inside Box
8
7
Corner Kicks
2
4
Offsides
5
11
Fouls
15
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
70%
1
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 1
31'
⚽
A. Stach
0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
46'
⇄
J. Bijol ↓ · G. Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 1
R. Barkley ↓ · A. Onana ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
J. Sancho ↓ · L. Bailey ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
62'
▮
Jaka Bijol
Yellow Card
69'
▮
Karl Darlow
Yellow Card
Emiliano Buendía
Yellow Card
▮
73'
73'
⇄
L. Nmecha ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑
Substitution 2
T. Abraham ↓ · E. Buendia ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
79'
▮
Jayden Bogle
Yellow Card
83'
⇄
S. Longstaff ↓ · A. Stach ↑
Substitution 3
L. Bogarde ↓ · Douglas Luiz ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
A. Garcia ↓ · M. Cash ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
T. Abraham
1–1
⚽
88'
90+2'
▮
Ilia Gruev
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.91 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.05 — 51% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
BTTS No 2.12 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.79 — 52% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.90 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.01 — 41% Cashed +1.01 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.25 — 84% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.00 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.40 — 72% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.15 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.38 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 — 91% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Under 0.5 11.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.28 — 74% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Draw 3.80 — 24% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Away Win 4.49 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.31 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.36u −14% ROI