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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Casa Pia

Match Rio Ave vs Casa Pia January 4, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 D L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 15:30
3:1
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L L W D D Away · last 5
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube · Vila do Conde Referee Vasilica Iancu, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 50% · book 2.38 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.90 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.70 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
2.38 – 1.84
Δ +0.54
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Rio Ave holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Estádio do Rio Ave. Their solid defensive shape should challenge Casa Pia's less potent attack, while Rio Ave’s sharper offensive edge could exploit Casa Pia’s defensive gaps. Both sides show similar recent form, but Rio Ave’s home momentum and tactical discipline might tilt the balance.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away attack
  • Rio Ave’s home edge in pressing and control
  • Balanced recent form but home advantage favors Rio Ave

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

RIO 3-4-3 · CAS 3-5-2
RIO · 3-4-3 3-5-2 · CAS 1 Miszta 23 Petrasso 32 Brabec 6 Abbey 20 Tomé 5 Ndoj 10 Aguilera ⚽ 17 Vrousai 11 Luiz ⚽ 9 Clayton 18 Špikić 1 Sequeira 18 Geraldes 6 Fonte 43 Sousa 72 Larrazabal 20 Oukili 8 Brito 74 Nhaga 5 Conté 90 Cassiano 29 Livolant
Subs used · RIO
74' Pohlmann ↑ · Spikic ↓
88' Nikitscher ↑ · Luiz ↓
88' Liavas ↑ · Petrasso ↓
90+2' Papakanellos ↑ · Clayton ↓
90+2' Graca ↑ · Aguilera Zamora ↓
Subs used · CAS
62' Prieto ↑ · Conte ↓
62' Perez ↑ · Brito ↓
69' Nsona ↑ · Larrazabal ↓
69' Mendes ↑ · Cassiano ↓
70' Sousa ↑ · Oukili ↓

📊 Statistics

RIO 3 – 1 CAS
51%
Possession (%)
49%
2.38
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.84
12
Total Shots
15
8
Shots on Target
5
2
Shots off Target
6
6
Shots Inside Box
12
9
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
23
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
0
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

⏱ Match events

15 · 3 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
Andre Luiz
Assist · Clayton · 1–0
⚽
54'
62'
⇄
K. Prieto ↓ · A. Conte ↑
Substitution 1
62'
⇄
S. Perez ↓ · R. Brito ↑
Substitution 2
B. Aguilera Zamora
2–0
⚽
62'
69'
⇄
K. Nsona ↓ · G. Larrazabal ↑
Substitution 3
69'
⇄
C. Mendes ↓ · Cassiano ↑
Substitution 4
70'
⇄
Miguel Sousa ↓ · Y. Oukili ↑
Substitution 5
O. Pohlmann ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
74'
83'
⚽
C. Mendes
Assist · Miguel Sousa · 2–1
Andre Luiz
Assist · Clayton · 3–1
⚽
86'
T. Nikitscher ↓ · Andre Luiz ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
88'
G. Liavas ↓ · F. Petrasso ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
88'
90'
▮
André Geraldes
Yellow Card
A. Papakanellos ↓ · Clayton ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+2'
J. Graca ↓ · B. Aguilera Zamora ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+2'
Full-time · 3 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.38 — 50% Cashed +1.38 Cashed
BTTS No 1.90 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.70 — 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.00 — 45% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.26 — 39% Cashed +1.26 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.70 — 50% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.62 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.28 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.10 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 — 78% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.42 — 65% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.25 — 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.50 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.09 — 88% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 3.30 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.20 — 20% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Away Win 3.40 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.57u −3% ROI