Match Tondela vs Arouca January 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.00 — +14.7% better than the market.

Tondela hosts Arouca in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge and better recent form. Arouca's defensive solidity may challenge Tondela's moderate attack, while the home side's defensive resilience could keep the scoreline tight. The home advantage offers Tondela some hope, but Arouca's more consistent results and pressing edge suggest a controlled game with limited goals.

Arouca's stronger overall quality and form advantage
Tondela's home defense vs Arouca's less potent attack
Likely a cautious pace with under 2.5 goals probable

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TON 4-2-3-1 · ARO 4-2-3-1

TON · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ARO

29 Siebatcheu ⚽

Subs used · TON

46'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Siebatcheu ↓

73'

Felix ↑ ·

Cavaleiro ↓

77'

Conceicao ↑ ·

Manso ↓

83'

Afonso ↑ ·

Hodge ↓

83'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

Subs used · ARO

65'

Fukui ↑ ·

Popovic ↓

65'

Kuipers ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

79'

Puche ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

79'

Nandin ↑ ·

Esgaio ↓

83'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Santos ↓

📊 Statistics

TON 3 – 1 ARO

29%

Possession (%)

71%

0.67

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.73

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

69%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 3 – 1

⚽

A. Trezza

Assist · E. van Ee · 0–1

E. Maviram

1–1

⚽

12'

Emmanuel Maviram

Yellow Card

▮

19'

J. Siebatcheu

Assist · E. Maviram · 2–1

⚽

34'

Half-time · 2 – 1

Y. Rodriguez ↓ · J. Siebatcheu ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Cicero

Yellow Card

▮

52'

Tiago Manso

Yellow Card

▮

57'

Y. Rodriguez

Assist · E. Maviram · 3–1

⚽

60'

65'

⇄

T. Fukui ↓ · B. Popovic ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

B. Kuipers ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 2

H. Felix ↓ · I. Cavaleiro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

R. Conceicao ↓ · T. Manso ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

79'

⇄

Puche ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

D. Nandin ↓ · Tiago Esgaio ↑

Substitution 4

J. Afonso ↓ · J. Hodge ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

J. Rodriguez ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

⇄

B. Mansilla ↓ · Pedro Santos ↑

Substitution 5

90+2'

▮

Hyun-ju Lee

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.00	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.82	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.76	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.55	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.18	—	38%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.10	—	38%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	43%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Away Win	3.68	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.32	—	65%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	88%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.41	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.54	—	38%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.35	—	64%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.60	—	20%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.98u	−12% ROI