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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Moreirense — Tondela

Match Moreirense vs Tondela January 11, 2026

Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Sun 11 Jan · 18:00
1:0
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Moreira de Conegos Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 49% · book 2.43
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.68
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 1.85
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.42 – 0.50
Δ −0.08
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Moreirense holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite recent mixed results. Their defensive solidity should challenge Tondela's modest attack, while Moreirense's offense faces a less resilient away defense, suggesting control in key phases. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but both sides have struggled for consistent form, tempering expectations for a high-scoring affair.

  • Home defensive compactness vs away offensive limitations
  • Moreirense's slight form advantage and home comfort
  • Moderate tempo likely to keep chances measured

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

MOR 4-3-3 · TON 4-3-3
Subs used · MOR
46' Landerson ↑ · Teguia
69' Stjepanovic ↑ · Assis
69' Maranhao ↑ · Semedo
76' Marcelo ↑ · Michel
76' Batista ↑ · Bondoso
Subs used · TON
67' Aiko ↑ · Hodge
77' Sithole ↑ · Felix
77' Rodrigues ↑ · Rodriguez
82' Tavares ↑ · Cicero
82' Conceicao ↑ · Bebeto

📊 Statistics

MOR 10 TON
58%
Possession (%)
42%
0.42
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.50
7
Total Shots
8
2
Shots on Target
2
3
Shots off Target
3
4
Shots Inside Box
4
4
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
4
7
Fouls
13
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
1
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

13 · 1 – 0
30'
Joe Hodge
Yellow Card
Afonso Assis
Yellow Card
42'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Landerson ↓ · C. Teguia ↑
Substitution 1
46'
Maracas
Assist · Alanzinho · 1–0
62'
67'
M. Aiko ↓ · J. Hodge ↑
Substitution 1
M. Stjepanovic ↓ · A. Assis ↑
Substitution 2
69'
Yan Maranhao ↓ · L. Semedo ↑
Substitution 3
69'
Marcelo ↓ · Michel ↑
Substitution 4
76'
G. Batista ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑
Substitution 5
76'
77'
S. Sithole ↓ · H. Felix ↑
Substitution 2
77'
A. Rodrigues ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 3
82'
H. Tavares ↓ · Cicero ↑
Substitution 4
82'
R. Conceicao ↓ · Bebeto ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.43 49% Cashed +1.43 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.68 58% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
BTTS No 1.85 52% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.30 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.95 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.70 49% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.62 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.31 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 77% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.00 32% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.40 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 89% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.23 78% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.17 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.22 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.00 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.28 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −2.65u −16% ROI