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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Tondela — Casa Pia

Match Tondela vs Casa Pia December 21, 2025

Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sun 21 Dec · 18:00
1:2
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L L W D D Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 64% · book 1.70
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.87
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.68
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
1.75 – 1.15
Δ +0.60
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Casa Pia enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a more consistent recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their defensive solidity matches well against Tondela's moderate attacking threat, hinting at a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances.

  • Casa Pia's defensive resilience may stifle Tondela's offense.
  • Tondela's home momentum is fragile but could exploit set-pieces.
  • Expect a measured tempo given the moderate goal expectations.

Overall, this looks like a tight contest where Casa Pia's quality and form could tip the balance, but a low-scoring affair seems likely.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

TON 4-4-2 · CAS 4-1-4-1
Subs used · TON
61' Conceicao ↑ · Manso
79' Hodge ↑ · Felix
79' Rodriguez ↑ · Rodriguez
86' Lopes ↑ · Maviram
86' Rodrigues ↑ · Maranhao
Subs used · CAS
69' Brito ↑ · Perez
69' Cassiano ↑ · Rocha Livramento
81' Sousa ↑ · Oukili
87' Goulart ↑ · Larrazabal
87' Prieto ↑ · Livolant

📊 Statistics

TON 12 CAS
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.75
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.15
11
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
5
8
Shots Inside Box
9
6
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
16
76%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
2
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

18 · 1 – 2
Tiago Manso
Yellow Card
23'
31'
Renato Nhaga
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
João Afonso
Yellow Card
53'
I. Cavaleiro (P)
Penalty · 1–0
58'
R. Conceicao ↓ · T. Manso ↑
Substitution 1
61'
61'
G. Larrazabal
Assist · J. Livolant · 1–1
66'
Yassin Oukili
Yellow Card
69'
R. Brito ↓ · S. Perez ↑
Substitution 1
69'
Cassiano ↓ · D. Rocha Livramento ↑
Substitution 2
70'
R. Nhaga
Assist · G. Larrazabal · 1–2
J. Hodge ↓ · H. Felix ↑
Substitution 2
79'
Y. Rodriguez ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 3
79'
81'
Miguel Sousa ↓ · Y. Oukili ↑
Substitution 3
82'
André Geraldes
Yellow Card
Rony Lopes ↓ · E. Maviram ↑
Substitution 4
86'
A. Rodrigues ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑
Substitution 5
86'
87'
J. Goulart ↓ · G. Larrazabal ↑
Substitution 4
87'
K. Prieto ↓ · J. Livolant ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.70 64% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS No 1.87 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.68 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.50 36% Cashed +1.50 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.02 44% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.33 38% Cashed +1.33 Cashed
Home Win 2.29 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.60 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.10 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.60 36% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.42 65% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.33 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.25 81% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.10 88% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 3.25 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.40 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.08u −6% ROI