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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Alverca

Match Arouca vs Alverca December 14, 2025

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 14 Dec · 20:30
1:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 59% · book 1.91
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 65% · book 1.70
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 48% · book 2.53
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.73 – 0.21
Δ +1.52
Possession
69% – 31%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.91 — +12.5% better than the market.

Alverca arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their stronger attack faces a home defense that has struggled, hinting at potential pressure on Arouca’s backline. However, Arouca’s home edge is mild, and their compact block could limit scoring chances, pointing to a cautious game with fewer goals expected.

  • Alverca’s offensive edge vs Arouca’s defense
  • Home momentum lacking for Arouca
  • Likely a low to moderate pace match with defensive focus

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.91 ✓ Cashed
AI 59% Implied 52% +0.91u
+91%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · ALV 3-4-2-1
Subs used · ARO
55' Lee ↑ · Puche
69' Fontan ↑ · Popovic
69' Barbero ↑ · Nandin
85' Simao ↑ · Djouahra
85' Gozalbez ↑ · van Ee
Subs used · ALV
46' Marezi ↑ · Figueiredo
77' Gui ↑ · Amorim
77' Nuozzi ↑ · Lincoln
85' James ↑ · Meupiyou
89' Lima ↑ · Abdulai

📊 Statistics

ARO 10 ALV
69%
Possession (%)
31%
1.73
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.21
19
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
2
11
Shots Inside Box
2
8
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
2
15
Fouls
11
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
70%
1
Yellow Cards
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 1 – 0
22'
Sandro Lima
Red Card
34'
Nabil Touaizi
Yellow Card
41'
Kaiky Naves
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
Marezi ↓ · Figueiredo ↑
Substitution 1
H. Lee ↓ · Puche ↑
Substitution 1
55'
H. Lee
Assist · Tiago Esgaio · 1–0
59'
Tiago Esgaio
Yellow Card
68'
J. Fontan ↓ · B. Popovic ↑
Substitution 2
69'
I. Barbero ↓ · D. Nandin ↑
Substitution 3
69'
73'
Lincoln
Yellow Card
77'
D. Gui ↓ · Amorim ↑
Substitution 2
77'
C. Nuozzi ↓ · Lincoln ↑
Substitution 3
D. Simao ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑
Substitution 4
85'
P. Gozalbez ↓ · E. van Ee ↑
Substitution 5
85'
85'
I. James ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑
Substitution 4
89'
Felipe Lima ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑
Substitution 5
90+5'
Francisco Chissumba
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.91 59% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.70 65% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Away Win 2.53 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.79 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.27 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.95 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.14 25% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.10 38% Cashed +2.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.42 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.50 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.42 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.56 52% Cashed +0.56 Cashed
Home Win 3.00 25% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.25 83% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.09 87% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 3.30 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.20 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.25u −7% ROI
Best bet of the night · BTTS No
ARO – ALV @ 1.91
+12.5%
Edge
Forecast →