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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Estrela — Arouca

Match Estrela vs Arouca December 7, 2025

Estrela
Estrela
Home · last 5 L L L D D
Kick-off
Sun 07 Dec · 18:00
3:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Estádio José Gomes · Amadora Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 64% · book 1.72
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.95
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.76
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
3.27 – 0.48
Δ +2.79
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Estrela hosts Arouca in a Primeira Liga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge. Arouca’s defensive solidity contrasts with Estrela’s more potent attack, suggesting a tactical battle. Home momentum is moderate, while Arouca struggles for form, hinting at a tight contest. The odds favor a cautious game with under 2.5 goals likely, reflecting a compact defensive setup and limited goal-scoring chances.

  • Estrela’s home edge in attack vs Arouca’s defense
  • Arouca’s overall quality advantage
  • Recent form favors a low-tempo, tactical match

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

EST 3-4-3 · ARO 4-3-3
Subs used · EST
68' Pinho ↑ · Jovane
73' Robinho ↑ · Otavio
73' Encada ↑ · Ngom
82' Antonetti ↑ · Kikas
82' Meireles ↑ · Stoica
Subs used · ARO
62' Santos ↑ · van Ee
73' Lee ↑ · Trezza
82' Barbero ↑ · Nandin

📊 Statistics

EST 31 ARO
63%
Possession (%)
37%
3.27
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.48
24
Total Shots
9
9
Shots on Target
2
7
Shots off Target
4
16
Shots Inside Box
6
5
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
14
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
75%
1
Yellow Cards
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

19 · 3 – 1
28'
Alex Pinto
Red Card
Kikas
Assist · I. Stoica · 1–0
29'
A. Marcus
Assist · I. Stoica · 2–0
34'
Oumar Ngom
Yellow Card
45'
Half-time · 2 – 0
51'
Espen Van Ee
Yellow Card
51'
Naïs Djouahra
Yellow Card
59'
T. Fukui
2–1
62'
Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑
Substitution 1
68'
Taichi Fukui
Red Card
Rodrigo Pinho ↓ · Jovane ↑
Substitution 1
68'
Robinho ↓ · Otavio ↑
Substitution 2
73'
J. Encada ↓ · O. Ngom ↑
Substitution 3
73'
73'
H. Lee ↓ · A. Trezza ↑
Substitution 2
L. Antonetti ↓ · Kikas ↑
Substitution 4
82'
J. Meireles ↓ · I. Stoica ↑
Substitution 5
82'
82'
I. Barbero ↓ · D. Nandin ↑
Substitution 3
85'
Pedro Santos
Yellow Card
Rodrigo Pinho
Assist · J. Meireles · 3–1
89'
90+7'
Hyun-ju Lee
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.72 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.95 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.76 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.52 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.18 42% Cashed +1.18 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.91 45% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Home Win 2.29 36% Cashed +1.29 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.60 36% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Away Win 3.51 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.40 68% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.35 63% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.25 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.27 78% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.09 89% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.32 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.10 22% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.08u −6% ROI