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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Alverca — Nacional

Match Alverca vs Nacional December 7, 2025

Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sun 07 Dec · 18:00
1:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
FC Alverca Sports Complex · Alverca do Ribatejo Referee Gustavo Correia, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 52% · book 2.26
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 43% · book 2.28
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 1.87
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
2.07 – 0.92
Δ +1.15
Possession
50% – 50%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Alverca holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, supported by a stronger adjusted rating and better recent form. Their defensive solidity could stifle Nacional’s attack, which has been less effective away. Expect a tactical battle where Alverca’s compact block and set-piece threat may prove decisive. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but goals might be limited given both sides’ defensive discipline.

  • Home advantage with a solid defensive base
  • Alverca’s recent wins boost confidence
  • Nacional’s attack faces a tough test

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · NAC 4-3-3
Subs used · ALV
66' Marezi ↑ · Lima
66' Figueiredo ↑ · Nuozzi
85' Gui ↑ · Abdulai
85' Lima ↑ · Lincoln
90+2' Baseya ↑ · Amorim
Subs used · NAC
65' Baeza ↑ · Labidi
66' Witi ↑ · Nourani
89' Joao ↑ · Vallier
89' Silva ↑ · Nunez
90' Deivison ↑ · Dias

📊 Statistics

ALV 10 NAC
50%
Possession (%)
50%
2.07
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.92
10
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
11
2
Corner Kicks
2
3
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
19
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

13 · 1 – 0
Half-time · 0 – 0
65'
M. Baeza ↓ · C. Labidi ↑
Substitution 1
Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑
Substitution 1
66'
Figueiredo ↓ · C. Nuozzi ↑
Substitution 2
66'
66'
Witi ↓ · M. Nourani ↑
Substitution 2
Nabil Touaizi
Yellow Card
71'
D. Gui ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑
Substitution 3
85'
Felipe Lima ↓ · Lincoln ↑
Substitution 4
85'
Marezi
Assist · D. Gui · 1–0
88'
89'
L. Joao ↓ · L. Vallier ↑
Substitution 3
89'
J. Silva ↓ · A. Nunez ↑
Substitution 4
90'
Deivison ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 5
S. Baseya ↓ · Amorim ↑
Substitution 5
90+2'
90+3'
Deivison Souza Brito
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.26 52% Cashed +1.26 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.28 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.87 52% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.69 57% Cashed +0.69 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.00 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.72 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.58 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.33 80% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.42 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.00 31% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.53 52% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.10 90% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.20 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.25 77% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Draw 3.30 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.50 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.65 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −2.97u −17% ROI