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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Brighton

Match Aston Villa vs Brighton February 11, 2026

England   /   Premier League
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Wed 11 Feb · 19:30
1:0
Full-time
Brighton
Brighton
W L W L L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Peter Bankes, England
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 58% · book 1.98 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.12 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.20 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.67 – 0.46
Δ +0.21
Possession
50% – 50%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Aston Villa arrives at Villa Park with a clear quality edge and stronger recent form, showing signs of home momentum after three wins in five. Their defensive solidity could challenge Brighton's potent attack, which has a slight advantage in offensive metrics but faces a tough test against Villa's compact block. The match hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, favoring a controlled Villa performance.

  • Home edge in defense and form
  • Brighton's attacking threat vs Villa's compact defense
  • Moderate tempo suggests tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · BRI 4-3-3
AST · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · BRI 23 Martínez 26 Bogarde 4 Konsa 5 Mings 22 Maatsen 24 Onana 21 Luiz 19 Sancho 27 Rogers 10 Buendía 11 Watkins 1 Verbruggen 34 Veltman 6 Hecke 5 Dunk 24 Kadıoğlu 30 Groß 17 Baleba 13 Hinshelwood 25 Gómez 18 Welbeck 22 Mitoma
Subs used · AST
60' Barkley ↑ · Buendia ↓
60' Bailey ↑ · Sancho ↓
74' Alysson ↑ · Watkins ↓
75' Abraham ↑ · Onana ↓
84' Lindelof ↑ · Luiz ↓
Subs used · BRI
22' Milner ↑ · Baleba ↓
61' Boscagli ↑ · P. van Hecke ↓
81' Minteh ↑ · Mitoma ↓
81' Kostoulas ↑ · Welbeck ↓
81' Howell ↑ · Gomez ↓

📊 Statistics

AST 1 – 0 BRI
50%
Possession (%)
50%
0.67
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.46
15
Total Shots
9
1
Shots on Target
3
10
Shots off Target
5
10
Shots Inside Box
7
7
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
3
9
Fouls
15
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
2
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 0
2'
▮
Carlos Baleba
Yellow Card
22'
⇄
J. Milner ↓ · C. Baleba ↑
Substitution 1
23'
▮
Joël Veltman
Yellow Card
Emiliano Martínez
Yellow Card
▮
41'
41'
▮
Jan Paul van Hecke
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Morgan Rogers
Yellow Card
▮
50'
R. Barkley ↓ · E. Buendia ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
L. Bailey ↓ · J. Sancho ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
61'
⇄
O. Boscagli ↓ · J. P. van Hecke ↑
Substitution 2
Alysson ↓ · O. Watkins ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
T. Abraham ↓ · A. Onana ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
81'
⇄
Y. Minteh ↓ · K. Mitoma ↑
Substitution 3
81'
⇄
C. Kostoulas ↓ · D. Welbeck ↑
Substitution 4
81'
⇄
H. Howell ↓ · D. Gomez ↑
Substitution 5
V. Lindelof ↓ · Douglas Luiz ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
J. Hinshelwood
Own goal · 1–0
⚽
86'
Full-time · 1 – 0

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.98 — 58% Cashed +0.98 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.12 — 48% Cashed +1.12 Cashed
BTTS No 2.20 — 45% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.86 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.68 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.92 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.29 — 82% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.44 — 69% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.00 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.45 — 58% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.20 — 24% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.26 — 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 13.40 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.82 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.86 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.01 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.27u −7% ROI