Match Leeds vs Manchester United January 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.90 — +10.8% better than the market.

Leeds show solid home momentum with a compact defensive block and recent unbeaten form, but Manchester United carry a clear quality edge and stronger attack. The visitors’ offensive threat could exploit Leeds’ defensive gaps, especially given their higher adjusted strength. Expect a tactical battle with chances at both ends, leaning towards a competitive, moderately paced game with potential for goals.

Leeds’ home resilience vs United’s superior firepower
Recent form favors Leeds slightly but quality gap favors United
Moderate tempo suggests balanced chances and goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.90 ✗ Lost

AI 58% Implied 53% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEE 3-5-2 · MUN 3-4-2-1

LEE · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · MUN

19 Okafor

Subs used · LEE

75'

Nmecha ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

80'

Tanaka ↑ ·

Gruev ↓

80'

Gnonto ↑ ·

Bornauw ↓

87'

Piroe ↑ ·

Aaronson ↓

Subs used · MUN

63'

Zirkzee ↑ ·

Yoro ↓

📊 Statistics

LEE 1 – 1 MUN

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.92

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

8 · 1 – 1

34'

▮

Patrick Dorgu

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

B. Aaronson

Assist · P. Struijk · 1–0

⚽

62'

63'

⇄

J. Zirkzee ↓ · L. Yoro ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⚽

M. Cunha

Assist · J. Zirkzee · 1–1

L. Nmecha ↓ · N. Okafor ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

A. Tanaka ↓ · I. Gruev ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

W. Gnonto ↓ · S. Bornauw ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

J. Piroe ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

Full-time · 1 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.90	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.68	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.66	—	61%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
BTTS No	2.33	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.94	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.05	—	42%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Home Win	2.78	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.51	—	72%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.15	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	63%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.53	—	54%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	80%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.56	—	26%	Cashed	+2.56	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.18	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.30	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.93u	−17% ROI