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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › Italy › Serie A › Atalanta — Fiorentina

Match Atalanta vs Fiorentina November 30, 2025

Italy   /   Serie A
Atalanta
Atalanta
Home · last 5 L D W L D
Kick-off
Sun 30 Nov · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
D L D W D Away · last 5
New Balance Arena · Bergamo Referee Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 62% · book 1.78 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.00 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.01 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.72 – 1.43
Δ +0.29
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Atalanta hosts Fiorentina with a clear quality edge, backed by a stronger defensive setup and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their pressing and compact block should challenge Fiorentina's attack, which has struggled to convert chances consistently. Fiorentina's resilience and slightly better recent points per game hint at a tough contest, but Atalanta's home tactical discipline and higher overall strength suggest they will control the pace and likely edge the result.

  • Atalanta's defensive solidity vs Fiorentina's moderate offense
  • Home advantage with tactical pressing
  • Close form but stronger squad depth for Atalanta

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · FIO 3-5-2
ATA · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · FIO 29 Carnesecchi 3 Kossounou ⚽ 4 Hien 19 Djimsiti 16 Bellanova 13 Éderson 15 Roon 77 Zappacosta 17 Ketelaere 11 Lookman ⚽ 9 Scamacca 43 Gea 5 Pongračić 18 Marí 6 Ranieri 2 Dodô 8 Mandragora 44 Fagioli 7 Sohm 65 Parisi 20 Kean 91 Piccoli
Subs used · ATA
67' Pasalic ↑ · Ederson ↓
67' Zalewski ↑ · Zappacosta ↓
77' Sulemana ↑ · Lookman ↓
77' Krstovic ↑ · Scamacca ↓
86' Kolasinac ↑ · Hien ↓
Subs used · FIO
64' Fortini ↑ · Dodo ↓
64' Gudmundsson ↑ · Fagioli ↓
75' Comuzzo ↑ · Mari ↓
79' Ndour ↑ · Sohm ↓
80' Richardson ↑ · Piccoli ↓

📊 Statistics

ATA 2 – 0 FIO
48%
Possession (%)
52%
1.72
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.43
22
Total Shots
15
9
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
8
15
Shots Inside Box
13
4
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
10
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
7

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 0
O. Kossounou
Assist · C. De Ketelaere · 1–0
⚽
41'
Half-time · 1 – 0
A. Lookman
2–0
⚽
52'
59'
▮
Marin Pongračić
Yellow Card
64'
⇄
N. Fortini ↓ · Dodo ↑
Substitution 1
64'
⇄
A. Gudmundsson ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑
Substitution 2
M. Pasalic ↓ · Ederson ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
67'
N. Zalewski ↓ · D. Zappacosta ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
69'
▮
Pablo Marí
Yellow Card
71'
▮
Rolando Mandragora
Yellow Card
75'
⇄
P. Comuzzo ↓ · P. Mari ↑
Substitution 3
K. Sulemana ↓ · A. Lookman ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
N. Krstovic ↓ · G. Scamacca ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
79'
⇄
C. Ndour ↓ · S. Sohm ↑
Substitution 4
80'
⇄
A. Richardson ↓ · R. Piccoli ↑
Substitution 5
Isak Hien
Yellow Card
▮
84'
S. Kolasinac ↓ · I. Hien ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
86'
Full-time · 2 – 0

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.78 — 62% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.00 — 50% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS No 2.01 — 49% Cashed +1.01 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.94 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.85 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.19 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.21 — 85% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.30 — 62% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.38 — 71% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.85 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 — 92% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 — 74% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.30 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.93 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.00 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.01 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.71 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.96u −29% ROI