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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Italy Serie A Napoli — Genoa

Match Napoli vs Genoa October 5, 2025

Italy   /   Serie A
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 16:00
2:1
Full-time
Genoa
Genoa
L D D L L Away · last 5
Referee Federico La Penna, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 56% · book 2.33
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 31% · book 4.50
Hit
Over 1.5
Over 1.5
AI 78% · book 1.44
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.10 – 0.44
Δ +0.66
Possession
69% – 31%
AI accuracy
3 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Napoli vs Genoa — betting preview

Napoli arrive with a clear overall strength edge and enough attacking layers to control territory at home. Genoa’s best route is a compact block with counters, but their recent chance creation away from home looks limited. Expect Napoli to dictate tempo and shot locations; if the hosts score first, the game can open into higher totals.

Our numbers lean strongly to home-sided outcomes with a moderate-to-high scoring ceiling driven by Napoli. The cleaner angles are totals in the over band and selective fades of the away goal.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

NAP 4-1-4-1 · GEN 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NAP
44' Gilmour ↑ · Lobotka
50' Spinazzola ↑ · Olivera
51' De Bruyne ↑ · Politano
82' Gutierrez ↑ · Neres
82' Lucca ↑ · Hojlund
Subs used · GEN
46' Otoa ↑ · Marcandalli
61' Thorsby ↑ · Malinovskyi
61' Ekuban ↑ · Ekhator
76' Colombo ↑ · Vitinha
77' Carboni ↑ · Sabelli

📊 Statistics

NAP 21 GEN
69%
Possession (%)
31%
1.10
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.44
12
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Target
1
4
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
1
7
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
2
16
Fouls
15
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
68%
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 2 – 1
28'
Alessandro Marcandalli
Yellow Card
34'
J. Ekhator
Assist · B. Norton-Cuffy · 0–1
38'
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Yellow Card
B. Gilmour ↓ · S. Lobotka ↑
Substitution 1
44'
Half-time · 0 – 1
46'
S. Otoa ↓ · A. Marcandalli ↑
Substitution 1
L. Spinazzola ↓ · M. Olivera ↑
Substitution 2
50'
K. De Bruyne ↓ · M. Politano ↑
Substitution 3
51'
David Neres
Yellow Card
55'
F. Anguissa
1–1
57'
61'
M. Thorsby ↓ · R. Malinovskyi ↑
Substitution 2
61'
C. Ekuban ↓ · J. Ekhator ↑
Substitution 3
63'
Sebastian Otoa
Yellow Card
R. Hojlund
2–1
75'
76'
L. Colombo ↓ · Vitinha ↑
Substitution 4
77'
V. Carboni ↓ · S. Sabelli ↑
Substitution 5
M. Gutierrez ↓ · David Neres ↑
Substitution 4
82'
L. Lucca ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑
Substitution 5
82'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.33 56% Cashed +1.33 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.50 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.44 78% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Away Team Total Under 0.5 1.79 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.00 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.55 66% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Draw 4.18 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 3 W · 4 L −1.68u −24% ROI