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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Italy Serie A Lecce — Bologna

Match Lecce vs Bologna September 28, 2025

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lecce
Lecce
Home · last 5 D W L W W
Kick-off
Sun 28 Sep · 16:00
2:2
Full-time
Bologna
Bologna
L D W W D Away · last 5
Referee Francesco Fourneau, Italy
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 52% · book 2.17
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 65% · book 1.58
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 60% · book 1.71
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.71 – 1.42
Δ +0.29
Possession
33% – 67%
AI accuracy
2 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.17 — +13.0% better than the market.

This matchup features Lecce struggling to find form and goals at home, while Bologna shows a more balanced and resilient away performance. Lecce's recent results and scoring difficulties suggest a cautious approach, whereas Bologna's steadier form and defensive solidity on the road give them a clear edge. The model leans towards an away win but also acknowledges a reasonable chance of a draw given Lecce's home resilience. Goal expectations are modest, favoring under 2.5 goals and a no BTTS outcome. Asian handicap options on Bologna also present interesting value given their comparative strength and Lecce's offensive challenges.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 2.17 ✗ Lost
AI 52% Implied 46% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEC 4-3-3 · BOL 4-2-3-1
Subs used · LEC
46' Veiga ↑ · Kouassi
67' Camarda ↑ · Štulić
69' Ndaba ↑ · Gallo
77' N'Dri ↑ · Coulibaly
77' Banda ↑ · Morente
Subs used · BOL
62' Bernardeschi ↑ · Orsolini
68' Castro ↑ · Dallinga
68' Cambiaghi ↑ · Rowe
69' Odgaard ↑ · Fabbian
83' Silvestri ↑ · Holm

📊 Statistics

LEC 22 BOL
33%
Possession (%)
67%
1.71
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.42
12
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
9
3
Corner Kicks
9
1
Offsides
4
14
Fouls
13
66%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
4
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

20 · 2 – 2
Lassana Coulibaly
1–0
13'
29'
Thijs Dallinga
Yellow Card
45+1'
Riccardo Orsolini (P)
Penalty · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
Danilo Veiga ↓ · Christ-Owen Kouassi ↑
Substitution 1
46'
Kialonda Gaspar
Yellow Card
55'
Ylber Ramadani
Yellow Card
61'
62'
Federico Bernardeschi ↓ · Riccardo Orsolini ↑
Substitution 1
Antonino Gallo
Yellow Card
66'
Francesco Camarda ↓ · Nikola Štulić ↑
Substitution 2
67'
68'
Santiago Castro ↓ · Thijs Dallinga ↑
Substitution 2
68'
Nicolò Cambiaghi ↓ · Jonathan Rowe ↑
Substitution 3
Corrie Ndaba ↓ · Antonino Gallo ↑
Substitution 3
69'
69'
Jens Odgaard ↓ · Giovanni Fabbian ↑
Substitution 4
71'
Jens Odgaard
Assist · Emil Holm · 1–2
Konan N'Dri ↓ · Lassana Coulibaly ↑
Substitution 4
77'
Lameck Banda ↓ · Tete Morente ↑
Substitution 5
77'
83'
Lorenzo De Silvestri ↓ · Emil Holm ↑
Substitution 5
89'
Federico Bernardeschi
Yellow Card
Francesco Camarda
Assist · Medon Berisha · 2–2
90+4'
Francesco Camarda
Yellow Card
90+5'
Full-time · 2 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 2 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.17 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.58 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.71 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.45 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.29 80% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Home Win 4.33 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.28 28% Cashed +2.28 Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 2 W · 5 L −2.43u −35% ROI
Best bet of the night · Away Win
LEC – BOL @ 2.17
+13.0%
Edge
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